This morning Quinnipiac finds Rick Perry ahead of Mitt Romney among Republicans nationally, 24 percent to 18 percent, but I find the other bits of data more interesting:
Republicans and Democrats are tied 38 – 38 percent when the independent Quinnipiac University survey asks American voters who they would vote for in the 2012 races for U.S. Congress — the so-called “generic ballot.” The percentage of all registered voters who say President Obama deserves a second term in the Oval Office has fallen to a negative 42 – 51 percent, matching a 41 – 50 percent all-time low reading on whether he deserves another four years in office from a March 30 survey.
Polls are consistently showing Congress even less popular than usual — but the generic ballot remains pretty close in most surveys.
Among Republicans and independent voters leaning Republican, Perry gets 24 percent to Romney’s 18 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s 11 percent, Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s 10 percent, Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul’s 9 percent and businessman Herman Cain’s 5 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 3 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Michigan U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter get 1 percent each. If Palin doesn’t run, Perry leads Romney 26 – 20 percent with Bachmann at 12 percent.
Romney is viewed favorably by 36 percent, unfavorably by 27 percent — somewhat better than Perry’s split 22 – 23 percent favorable rating, with 55 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Among Republicans, however, Perry is 44 – 5 percent favorable, compared to Romney’s 57 – 14 favorable rating. Bachmann is 36 – 26 percent unfavorable among all voters and 50 – 14 percent favorable among Republicans. President Obama has a split 47 – 47 percent favorability rating among all voters. In the trial November matchups, the president ties Romney 45 – 45 percent. Obama edges Perry 45 – 42 percent and leads Bachmann 48 – 39 percent and Palin 51 – 37 percent.
I’m increasingly skeptical that Palin will run, but it’s rather fascinating that Obama’s at 51 percent against her. As recently as June, Fox News had him ahead, 56 percent to 35 percent and McClatchy had the same totals.
If Obama can't poll better against Palin, he's toast. Proof: Ask any random person, "Say something [politically] positive about Sarah Palin." Uhh...
How I wish Pawlenty would get back in.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLike most polls, this one overweights Dems compared to Repubs. That's how Barry loses indies by six points to Mitt - among registered voters, not even likely voters! - but still somehow ties him overall.
The weights based on the Obama-Romney results are:
50.0% Indie
27.4% Dem
22.6% Repub
These weights work well for the other three races. Both candidates in each race comes within one percentage point of the predicted results based on these weights. The famous rounding at work.
So even on a favorable Dem-heavy sample, Barry can only tie Mitt. On a sample equally weighted between Repubs and Dems, Obama would lose to Romney. And thanks to Obama's dismal showing among indies, it wouldn't even be that close.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Q-Pac poll has terrible splits if you look at reality. While this split probably reflects California, it doesn't reflect any State to which 2012 election will hinge. Frankly the Obama people, and more so Democrat leadership - must be scared out of their collective minds. There are a slew of problems:
1. First and foremost, this poll does not represent anything close to likely voters. Self Identified party ID was 35-35 in 2010. The reason it wasn't a bigger split is that a lot of "Tea Party" folks don't necessarily identify anymore with the GOP, in 2008 the Party ID split was +8 For Democrats. Let me assure you 2012 will look alot like 2008. Current polling in Rasmussen indicates the parties favor the GOP by 9 points (which is where we were in Nov, 2010). I really wish the Pollsters would start using an ID for Rep, Dem, Tea Party, and Ind (non-Tea party). If this was an option I would venture to say you are looking at something like 32-Dem, 25-Rep, 15-Tea Party, and 28
IND.
If you grab that split you are looking at Dems going 85-15 for Obama, Rep and Tea going 90-10 GOP, with Ind going 52-48 for Obama (keep in mind Ind. (e.g. Moderates get smaller when you take out Tea Party). This equates to an 8 point defeat.
Simply put they need to poll the Tea Party which is a force. Tea Party and Republican are not equal. Some folks (like me) will claim they are a Rep, but I know many voters who will NOT vote for Obama who will also not say they are REP. Simply put this demographic needs to be polled and split.
For example take Ohio a purplish red state - for the last few elections Ohio has pretty much gone as the country. In 2008 The State went +5 for Obama with final going +7, in 2004 Ohio went +2 for Bush, which was within a point in the blue direction. In 2000 The vote was more red with a +3.
The swing from 2008 versus 2010 a NINE point party ID swing in OH. Make no mistake Obama is in deep deep trouble. These national splits should worry the Dems plenty!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse