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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.


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The ‘O’ Turns to ‘0′

As you have probably heard, the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is somehow not merely disappointing but psychologically jarring:

That’s a zero, as in zero net jobs created.

August is traditionally a slow month for the unemployment rate, so no one should have expected a big drop in unemployment. Most of the figures were unchanged from July. But some weren’t so stable, and they’re bad news, too:

  • The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.4 million to 8.8 million in August.
  • About 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in August, up from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

The preliminary figure is that private-sector employment increased by 17,000, so Obama can, if he wishes, continue bragging about the number of months of consecutive private-sector job growth. Of course, when we add 100,000 to 200,000 new workers per month on average, the news is worse than it first appears. As I mentioned last week, we’ve rarely hit the threshold that is required to keep pace with new workers and actually bring down the unemployment rate.

UPDATE: Number-Cruncher, my favorite stats-and-numbers minded reader, looks at these new figures and says that the news isn’t good, but it’s not quite as dire as some may think:

The positive in this s report is that the Household Survey we gained 331,000 Jobs in August. Accordingly the Employment Population Ratio ticked up (that’s a good thing) by 0.1% (58.2% versus 58.1%).

BUT . . .

On a cautionary note, this not the first time this year the Household Survey had an outlier result. Thus, we are still in critical condition. If October and November follow duplicate this report (e.g. we add 300k jobs), real Job growth is on the horizon . . . despite anything we might see with the establishment survey. One report cannot erase a year of anemic job growth (according to the Household Survey) A comparison snapshot from the household survey from August 2010 to August 2011 indicates that we have added only 360,000 jobs the last 12 months while at the same time our able-bodied employable population has grown by almost 1.77 million (e.g. “Civilian noninstitutional population”).

So I conclude by saying that what we have is another “mixed” report. If this report is duplicated for the next three months (e.g. establishment data poor/household survey positive), the establishment survey data would be poised to gain significant steam in early to mid-2012 (something the administration wants desperately). The Caution however is that the household survey is a statistical number. To wit, it is not immune (despite a 60k sample size) to outlier results. Moreover, the results I am citing are seasonally adjusted and I am not privy to the data and calculation methodology. One report cannot not answer the question are more people getting jobs who pay their taxes quarterly, give us three in a row and we can start talking.

Number-Cruncher also notices that the unemployment rate for African-Americans is at its highest in 10 years at 16.7 percent. Since 2009, it has bounced around quite a bit, starting at 12.7 percent and hitting 16.5 percent in March and April of 2010, so it might be a more volatile figure than the broader range of the whole population. But if the numbers are accurate, African-American unemployment jumped eight-tenths of a percentage point last month.

Tags: Barack Obama, Unemployment

New on The Campaign Spot. . .


COMMENTS   5

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 RTP
   09/02/11 10:18

"Obama can, if he wishes, continue bragging about the number of months of consecutive private sector job growth."

He can, but people aren't as stupid as they hope. You can brag about numbers like that with unemployment at an acceptable number or if the job numbers are very robust.

Neither's the case and it rings very hollow in the ears of the unemployed, who happen to talk to the employed.

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astroglider
   09/02/11 11:38

Fun with fonts! But funemployment only lasts so long, basically until you lose your house. RTP, folkses may in fact be so stupid but they still know when dem belly empty. Even when dem accounts is empty. Or even emptying.

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 JEM
   09/02/11 12:07

Love to hear from Number Cruncher - problem with his very extremely guarded optimism on one stat is that regional fed reports are not even that. And if you begin looking at what big business is looking at with regards to planning for 2012, they see a global slow down and are hedging their plans. 2012 will not be better than 2011, it might be worse. The chances for an upside are extremely thin - housing is still underwater, if the banks are really going to get sued, loans will be even less available than today. The NLRB is already creating off shoring contingency planning (job losses are going to increase) for both their Boeing and election unit determination rulings. Cap and trade lives in the EPA. After the CERN Cloud study the EPA should drop it all - they won't.

Until Obama is gone, nothing will improve. There is no good reason to invest in the US on a macro level.

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   09/02/11 18:07

Afr-Am unemployment is up 0.8% in a month to its highest rate in over a decade.

"If Bush did it", this datapoint would drive screaming headlines all across the MSM: "ECONOMIC DEPRESSION OVERWHELMS BLACK COMMUNITY - WHILE BUSH AND CHENEY JUST LAUGH AND PLAY GOLF!!!"

But since Obama is the president . . . ???

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   09/02/11 19:33

The African-American (and I use the hyphen with regret) communities will be fine next month. Didn't Maxine Waters, Andre Carson and the dingbat Rep from FL in the cowboy hat just hold multiple jobs fairs during the break?

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