You’ll remember I’ve had my gripes with the Democratic survey firm Public Policy Polling in the past. But it sounds like they’ve encountered some results in the special election in New York that surprises (and probably displeases) them:
My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps . . . If David Weprin wins this race, he’s going to win it in the final 5 days.
GOP’s Bob Turner is being called “the Scott Brown of Queens,” but recall Brown’s rival, Martha Coakley, made an embarrassing gaffe by using a 9/11 image in a late ad, “The image in the attack on Scott Brown for his alleged closeness to Wall Street pictures the World Trade Center and the destroyed Marriott Hotel on its western side.”
Hey, wait. The DCCC released an ad that features a low-flying plane zooming towards New York skyscrapers days before the 9/11 anniversary. CNN shows the original and revised images in the ad:
By the way, the green copper-roofed skyscraper is 40 Wall Street, also known as the Bank of Manhattan Trust building, the Manhattan Company Building, and the Trump Building, which is about three blocks from the World Trade Center site.
Over at the lefty site FireDogLake, there’s some grumbling that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has botched this month’s special elections:
Understand that this [late spending on ads by the DCCC] has an impact on not one, but two elections. There’s another special election in NV-02 on September 13, and a few weeks ago one PPP poll showed that a one-point race between Republican Mark Amodei and Democrat Kate Marshall. But the DCCC never budged, never sent resources, and Amodei has buried Marshall with ad spending. So the D-Trip concedes that race, probably because they were conserving funds for NY-09, which by all rights should have been a sleepy blowout.
That half a million dollars would have come in very handy next year, when Democrats make a push to take back the House, no? Instead, it’s being chewed up in the expensive New York City media market to protect a bad candidate whose district will probably get chopped up in redistricting anyway. This is a really bad scenario, and it’s largely because of the national malaise and weak numbers for the President and Democrats. Republican numbers aren’t better, but in a seat like NY-09, the Democrats are seen as the incumbents. And the nation is in an anti-incumbent mood.
UPDATE: PPP must be seeing what Siena is seeing:
Republican Bob Turner led Democrat David Weprin by 6 points in the nonpartisan Siena College poll released this morning. The nonpartisan survey conducted Tuesday through late Thursday found 50 percent of those polled would vote for Turner if the election were held “today” while 44 percent would vote for Weprin. Six percent of the 886 likely voters polled said they were undecided. The numbers have flipped from a Siena poll a month ago, when Weprin had a 6-point lead.