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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

After NY-9, 50 Democrat-Held House Seats Could Be Competitive



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This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.

Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:

NY-9 PVI = D+5

 

DISTRICT PVI OLD PVI DEMOCRAT
AR-3 (10) R+8 R+7 OPEN (ROSS)
CA-9 (11) D+1 D+11 JOHN GARAMENDI
CA-16 (18) D+2 D+4 DENNIS CARDOZA
CA-21 (20) R+4 D+5 OPEN (COSTA)
CA-24 (23) D+3 D+12 LOIS CAPPS
CA-46 (47) D+3 D+4 LORETTA SANCHEZ
CO-7 D+4   ED PERLMUTTER
CT-4 D+5   JIM HIMES
CT-5 D+2   OPEN (MURPHY)
GA-2 D+5 D+1 SANFORD BISHOP
GA-12 R+9 D+1 JOHN BARROW
IA-1 D+5 D+5 BRUCE BRALEY
IA-2 D+3 D+7 DAVE LOEBSACK
IL-3 D+5 D+11 DAN LIPINSKY
IL-12 D+3 D+2 JERRY COSTELLO
IN-2 R+7 R+2 OPEN (DONNELLY)
KY-3 D+2   JOHN YARMUTH
KY-6 R+9   BEN CHANDLER
MA-10 D+5   BILL KEATING
ME-2 D+3   MIKE MICHAUD
MN-1 R+1   TIM WALZ
MN-7 R+5   COLLIN PETERSON
NC-7 R+11 R+5 MIKE MCINTYRE
NC-8 R+12 R+2 LARRY KISSELL
NC-11 R+13 R+6 HEATH SHULER
NC-13 R+10 D+5 BRAD MILLER
NJ-12 D+5   RUSH HOLT
NM-1 D+5   OPEN (HEINRICH)
NY-1 EVEN   TIM BISHOP
NY-2 D+4   STEVE ISRAEL
NY-23 R+1   BILL OWENS
NY-26 R+6   KATHY HOCHUL
NY-27 D+4   BRIAN HIGGINS
OK-2 R+14 R+14 OPEN (BOREN)
OR-4 D+3 D+2 PETER DEFAZIO
OR-5 D+1 D+1 KURT SCHRADER
PA-4 R+6   JASON ALTMIRE
PA-12 R+1   MARK CRITZ
PA-17 R+6   TIM HOLDEN
TN-5 D+3   JIM COOPER
TX-15 D+1 D+3 RUBEN HINOJOSA
TX-20 D+4 D+8 CHARLIE GONZALEZ
TX-28 D+3 EVEN HENRY CUELLAR
UT-2 R+15   JIM MATHESON
VA-11 D+2   GERRY CONNOLLY
WA-2 D+3   RICK LARSEN
WA-9 D+5   ADAM SMITH
WV-3 R+6 R+6 NICK RAHALL
WA-6 D+5   NORM DICKS
       
OPEN Seats      
IL-8 D+5   OPEN
CA-41 D+3   OPEN
CA-47 D+5   OPEN
TX-34 D+3   OPEN

Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.


Tags: House Races , NRCC , Redistricting


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