I don’t think either of the survey results cited in Mike Allen’s Politico newsletter are really that surprising, considering the state of the economy, etc., but he calls them “sobering” for Democrats:
THIS CYCLE’S BIGGEST SURVEY OF LATINO VOTERS: Campaigns and party committees are getting confidential briefings on the findings of a bipartisan poll for Univision of 1,500 likely Latino voters, conducted by Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group (a Democratic firm) and Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group (Republican). About one-third of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, and the poll oversampled in CA, TX, FL, NV, NM and AZ. Playbook was provided an exclusive look at the findings:
–The research finds A SUBSTANTIAL HISPANIC SWING VOTE. Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction creates an opening for Republicans with Hispanics, and PERRY’S STANDING IN TEXAS REVEALS HOW WELL THE GOP CAN DO WITH LATINOS. 57% of those polled consider themselves Democrats, 19% Republican and 15% independent. But 43% call themselves conservative, 37% liberal and 20% moderate. Even 32% of Democrats call themselves conservatives!
–Get this: For SWING Latino voters, the top concern was “the federal gov’t in DC is wasting too much of our tax money,” just ahead of education, Medicare, deficit, “family values are in decline” and jobs. Their top issues mirror the top issues of other swing voters: “illegal immigration is out of control” was cited by 14%, compared with 17% for “politicians aren’t serious about real immigration reform” (participants could give multiple answers).
–The point to the campaigns is that Spanish-language ads can be run on the candidates’ primary message – it doesn’t have to be a separate Hispanic track. 30% of Latino swing voters watch mostly Spanish-language TV, and even English speakers consider candidates’ Spanish ads as “a sign that they respect the community.”
2) PURPLE POLL: Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs and business advisory firm, is out today with a survey putting Obama’s favorability rating at 41% in 12 swing states he carried in 2008 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin . . . 1 in 4 (24%) have a favorable view of Texas Governor Rick Perry, and his numbers are worse (19 %) among independents. Mitt Romney’s favorability was 32%. In a general election matchup, Obama is in a statistical dead heat with both (Romney 46%; Obama 43% . . . Obama 46%; Perry 44%). The survey shows Obama struggling in these crucial states, especially with independents and seniors.
“Sobering?” Well, let’s face it, perhaps the prospect of the president running for reelection after what feels like a four-year recession is driving them to drink . . .
And why the surprise that the top concerns of Hispanic swing voters mirror the top concerns of other swing voters?
When did Minnesota and Wisconsin really become swing states at the presidential level? In order to be a swing state don't you actually have to swing back and forth? I have this problem with calling Pennsylvania a swing state for the same reason - it hasn't swung in ages. At least the other states go back and forth between the parties (or have in the last 3-4 elections).
Maybe I see Wisconsin given the results of the 2010 elections there, though it's still been almost 30 since the gave their electors to a Republican. But Minnesota? The state hasn't voted for a Republican for president since Nixon and they have a lunatic liberal in the governor's mansion (even if they do have Republicans in control of the legislature).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd why the surprise that the top concerns of Hispanic swing voters mirror the top concerns of other swing voters?
Because Politico, like other leftist media, see Hispanic voters as primarily one-issue voters (amnesty). It's the same for blacks (racism), women (abortion), and the elderly (Social Security). The fact that some who are categorized in one of these groups might dare to think differently from what the leftist media decides they must think is always a source of shock and anger for lefty journalists. Witness the media's surprise and hostility towards Herman Cain, whict at times is almost comical.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHow people self-identify ideologically and how they actually take positions on the issues aren't the same thing. My hope is that if Republicans see the Hispanic vote as winnable, they'll ease off the most fanatical scapegoating. The word "respect" is one that makes sense. Yes, English speaking and legally here Hispanics (about 80 percent of the total) have similar concerns to others, but if you keep pounding a message that all the country's ills are due to "illegals" it creates resentment rather than respect at all levels. It's simply not true, and Republicans seem too eager to pander to those who see things in such simplistic terms.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhich is why Rick Perry was running his General Election campaign two weeks ago, when he called his fellow Republicans "heartless". He was trying to win those votes...he just forgot first he had to win the votes of the Nativists to become the Nominee.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWill Perry stick to his guns, or will he cave in the face of nativist shrieking and wailing about his nuanced positions on Hispanics that are not unremittingly hostile like so many? Perry can carry Colorado, Nevada, Florida and other states with significant Hispanic populations. The haters are willing to risk writing off key states in the general, to make their points to the hysterical base in states that are in play only in the nomination process.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHistory Buff, You use "Nativists" as if it were some vile atrocious word to slander those of us who oppose legalizing or providing any benefits to illegal aliens. Of course all the word means is "the policy of protecting the interests of native-born or established inhabitants against those of immigrants." (Merriam Webster) Of course foreign born citizens should have exactly the same rights as native born citizens, and legal immigrants should have every right proscribed by law.
The question really is why Gov. Perry prefers the interests of illegal aliens over those of US citizens? President Obama and the Republican candidates owe American citizens an explanation of why they would put the interests of illegal aliens ahead of US citizens.
We don't really care about what dreams illegal aliens have when 22 million Americans who want a full time job can't find one to put food on the table for their families. What about the dreams of US citizens?
When 100,000s of US citizens are the victims of all kinds of crimes, we don't want to hear the childish rationale that illegal aliens commit no more or even fewer crimes than native born citizens. Absent illegal aliens none of their crimes would have been committed.
When millions of American citizens can't afford to send their children to college, they don't want to see tax dollars taken from their children and given to illegal aliens' children. This is particularly the case when the government is cutting programs for Americans but instead are increasing funding for programs for illegal aliens.
It is despicable for government officials at any level to put the interests of illegal aliens ahead of those of US citizens. When they do so it begs the question of what are the rights and obligations of citizens and their government officials.
Join NumbersUSA.org to fight for JOBS and the rights of American citizens.
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