Well, 42% was about the floor on approval for Bill Clinton, who managed to win a second term. But that was in a decent and improving economy, so this may spell doom for Obama when combined with 9% unemployment, skyrocketing gas prices, and a stubbornly soft housing market.
Clinton got 49% vs Dole's 40%.
I'm starting to think the only way Obama can get reelected is a 3rd party candidacy--on that's got enough money to attract attention, and be charismatic and unconventional enough to divide the anti-Obama vote.
A certain Wharton grad who wears an orange cat on his head comes to mind.
I said 42% was the FLOOR, as in of his approval rating, which is the subject of the post. You are talking about his electoral numbers in the 1996 election, which is a different thing entirely.
Not only did Clinton have a rapidly improving economy at the same point in his presidency, but he was also much more deft in blaming Republicans than Obama. Dole also had to deal with a Perot candidacy that probably siphoned off more votes from him than Clinton. (Perot's 1996 run was a lot more forgettable than his 1992 run, but he still picked up over 8% of the vote.) Obama has dug himself into a hole he is not skilled enough to dig out of. The only way he gets reelected is a mediocre Republican nominee.
I don't think there's any way Obama gets reelected with 55% disapproval. No way. (Only 41% of likely voters saying they would vote for him in the Rasmussen poll is also dismal -- most undecideds will break against the incumbent. If you have doubts about Obama today, what is going to change your mind by election day? He's had three years, I doubt there's anything he can do in the 4th year to turn it around.)
Third party on the right is a possibility, but I doubt many voters will go that route if it looks like Obama would win. The republican nominee would have to be REALLY terrible. And I don't see a "terrible" candidate making it out of the primaries.
So it looks like Obama's options are narrowing to: 1) lose ugly, or 2) step aside, or 3) pray for a miracle. The way things are going, option #2 could become a very real possibility. If Obama falls another 5% in the polls by winter, I think the pressure will start to build from his own side. But will leftwing political correctness (which makes it difficult to cricize Obama in any way) trump their desire to hold on to power? We'll see.
Doesn't anyone here ever follow the links? Obama's numbers may be bad, but the GOP's numbers are really, really, really bad. On almost every issue, people trust Obama more than they trust Republicans.
Romney -- and Romney alone -- can beat Obama, but he's going to have to run against his own party to do it. That will be tricky: he needs to make the extremists in the Tea Party intimately familiar with the underside of his campaign bus. They might not like the view.
To the extent that candidate Romney comes across as a genial, competent hood ornament, he'll beat Obama. Anything more wingnutty, and he'll lose. (In this respect, his reputation as a flip-flopper might actually help him -- he's clearly no fanatic.)
Well, 42% was about the floor on approval for Bill Clinton, who managed to win a second term. But that was in a decent and improving economy, so this may spell doom for Obama when combined with 9% unemployment, skyrocketing gas prices, and a stubbornly soft housing market.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseClinton got 49% vs Dole's 40%.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm starting to think the only way Obama can get reelected is a 3rd party candidacy--on that's got enough money to attract attention, and be charismatic and unconventional enough to divide the anti-Obama vote.
A certain Wharton grad who wears an orange cat on his head comes to mind.
I said 42% was the FLOOR, as in of his approval rating, which is the subject of the post. You are talking about his electoral numbers in the 1996 election, which is a different thing entirely.
But I do love your description of Trump.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf these are his numbers among adults, think of what they really are with just plain voters.
34% anyone? And that's 34% of the American population that are stone cold idiots.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNot only did Clinton have a rapidly improving economy at the same point in his presidency, but he was also much more deft in blaming Republicans than Obama. Dole also had to deal with a Perot candidacy that probably siphoned off more votes from him than Clinton. (Perot's 1996 run was a lot more forgettable than his 1992 run, but he still picked up over 8% of the vote.) Obama has dug himself into a hole he is not skilled enough to dig out of. The only way he gets reelected is a mediocre Republican nominee.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePoll Numbers, Schmoll Numbers, the numbers that matter are here: External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRasmussen:
O - 41%
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNot O(R) - 47%
I don't think there's any way Obama gets reelected with 55% disapproval. No way. (Only 41% of likely voters saying they would vote for him in the Rasmussen poll is also dismal -- most undecideds will break against the incumbent. If you have doubts about Obama today, what is going to change your mind by election day? He's had three years, I doubt there's anything he can do in the 4th year to turn it around.)
Third party on the right is a possibility, but I doubt many voters will go that route if it looks like Obama would win. The republican nominee would have to be REALLY terrible. And I don't see a "terrible" candidate making it out of the primaries.
So it looks like Obama's options are narrowing to: 1) lose ugly, or 2) step aside, or 3) pray for a miracle. The way things are going, option #2 could become a very real possibility. If Obama falls another 5% in the polls by winter, I think the pressure will start to build from his own side. But will leftwing political correctness (which makes it difficult to cricize Obama in any way) trump their desire to hold on to power? We'll see.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDoesn't anyone here ever follow the links? Obama's numbers may be bad, but the GOP's numbers are really, really, really bad. On almost every issue, people trust Obama more than they trust Republicans.
Romney -- and Romney alone -- can beat Obama, but he's going to have to run against his own party to do it. That will be tricky: he needs to make the extremists in the Tea Party intimately familiar with the underside of his campaign bus. They might not like the view.
To the extent that candidate Romney comes across as a genial, competent hood ornament, he'll beat Obama. Anything more wingnutty, and he'll lose. (In this respect, his reputation as a flip-flopper might actually help him -- he's clearly no fanatic.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse