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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.


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Harry Reid’s Public-Sector Recession

Sen. Harry Reid today: “It’s very clear that private-sector jobs are doing just fine. It’s public-sector jobs where we’ve lost huge numbers.”

Er . . . no.

Most recent number of government employees at all levels, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics: 21,985,000.

Recent peak: 22,980,000, in May 2010.

So from the peak, probably fueled by Census hiring, to our recent “low” that so concerns Sen. Reid, is 995,000 jobs. The Census is estimated to create about 1 million temporary jobs, or by some estimates, 1.2 million jobs. In other words, while some government offices and agencies have undoubtedly laid off some workers, it has been offset by hiring elsewhere, except for the bump in government jobs created by the Census.

Number of government workers the month President Obama took office: 22,582,000.

Last time the number was around the current level of 21.9 million: July 2006.

The private sector, unsurprisingly, tells a different story.

Most recent total number of all private-sector employees, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics: 109,349,000 (preliminary September 2011 number).

Recent peak: 115,610,000, in January 2008. It hit 115 million in February 2007 and remained above that threshold until June 2008.

Recent low: 106,772,000 in February 2010. It went below 108 million in June 2009 and remained below that threshold until December 2010.

Range from the recent peak to the recent low: 8,817,000.

You may note that since February 2010, private-sector employment has increased by 2,577,000, and think, Oh, that’s not too bad! That’s about 1.28 million jobs per year! But the size of the labor pool normally grows from month to month, and while economists disagree on precisely how many jobs need to be added each month just to keep pace with the additional workers, it generally ranges from 100,000 per month (AP) to 100,000 to 125,000 (Heritage Foundation) to about 130,000 (New York Times). In other words, the economy needs to add 1.2 million to 1.56 million jobs per year just to keep the unemployment rate at the same level.

The best you could say is that private-sector job growth is almost good enough to keep pace with the growing size of the labor force. That seems like an extraordinarily low bar to set for “just fine.”

As for the public-sector layoffs, while any laid-off government worker’s experience is undoubtedly painful for that figure, there has been no real recession in the public sector, at least in terms of total jobs. For the entirety of the past 11 years, public-sector employment has ranged from 20.8 million to the peak of 22.9 million. Meanwhile, the private sector is still 6 million away from its peak, with little or no prospect of making up significant ground in the months, and perhaps years, to come.

Tags: Harry Reid

New on The Campaign Spot. . .


COMMENTS   5

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John Burke
   10/19/11 15:40

I wonder what Reid has to say about the still rampant unemployment in Nevada's vacation and gambling industry and the desperate doldrums in its housing market and building industry.

No doubt, though, that Nevada bureaucrats are doing just fine.

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   10/19/11 16:35

First Rule of Holes.... STOP DIGGING!!!

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Impatient
   10/19/11 18:10

Senator Reid's comments are particularly ill-timed in light of the numbers the CBO just released this week stating that the federal government set yet another new record in amount of money spent for the fiscal year just ended.

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John the Mechanic
   10/22/11 14:36

Harry Reid was an integral part of Senate/House/White House "Statist Trio", of the last three years. For Nevadans, to have returned him, to the Senate, last year, was an act of unthinking recklessness. Whatever her shortcomings, Sharron Angle would have been a vastly superior senator, to Pomegranate Harry. Even if she had not, she could have been voted out after six years. Nevada and, most importantly, the nation, will suffer the consequences of Reid, for decades. I'm sorry, but, even more than the nation deserves the retribution, of having electing Barack Obama, Nevada deserves Harry Reid.

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John the Mechanic
   10/22/11 14:36

Harry Reid was an integral part of Senate/House/White House "Statist Trio", of the last three years. For Nevadans, to have returned him, to the Senate, last year, was an act of unthinking recklessness. Whatever her shortcomings, Sharron Angle would have been a vastly superior senator, to Pomegranate Harry. Even if she had not, she could have been voted out after six years. Nevada and, most importantly, the nation, will suffer the consequences of Reid, for decades. I'm sorry, but, even more than the nation deserves the retribution, of having electing Barack Obama, Nevada deserves Harry Reid.

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