As Sen. Harry Reid declares that private-sector job growth is doing “just fine,” the AP poll finds that the percentage of Americans who describe the economy as “very poor” has reached a new high.
A sizable majority — more than 7 in 10 — believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and, in a new high, 43 percent describe the nation’s economy as “very poor,” according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Among those surveyed, less than 40 percent say Obama’s proposed remedies for high unemployment would increase jobs significantly.
The pessimism is not a good sign for the nation’s recovery hopes and presents a more urgent challenge for Obama as he mounts his re-election bid.
About 4 in 10 think unemployment will rise in the coming year; just 23 percent expect it to decrease. And few expect the government to be able to help. Only 41 percent say the government can do much to create jobs, and less than 40 percent say the main elements of Obama’s jobs proposal would increase employment significantly.
What’s more, expectations for the coming year have not improved, with 41 percent believing the economy will remain the same, 27 percent saying it will get worse and 30 percent saying it will improve.
Until now, much of the analysis of the political impact of the Occupy Wall Street protests has focused on whether they can get Americans to blame Wall Street instead of the administration for the state of the economy, or whether the Democrats will marginalize themselves by wholeheartedly embracing a bunch of loons who poop on police cars and sneak into others’ tents to sniff their feet.
But maybe we’ve been missing another ripple effect from the protests, and more broadly, the “We Are the 99 Percent” argument showcasing tales of economic woe: In this environment, it makes it all but impossible for Obama or any other Democrat to argue that the economy is in recovery and that better times are just over the horizon. Obama’s election was heavily driven by the sudden onset of economic hard times; now he cannot really argue that we have recovered (at least not in a way most Americans can feel) and he can’t argue that a real recovery is just around the corner.
President Obama already knows he’s almost certainly going to be in a tough spot on the “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” question. But even worse for him, he now can’t argue that his policies just need a bit more time, and that 2013 will see the significant recovery Americans have been waiting for. The one indisputable message of the OWS/We Are the 99 Percent crowd is that economic opportunities are few and far between and that the basic goals of modern American life — getting a good education, finding a job, providing for one’s family, buying a house, being able to afford insurance and take care of one’s health — seem increasingly difficult or even impossible. Even Americans who have education, jobs, houses, and health insurance see the daily coverage of the protests and are reminded of their own economic anxieties.
That’s about as far from a “stay the course” message as you can imagine, and toxic for any cry of “four more years.”
Two quick points on this:
1. As a matter of pure messaging, perhaps the Republican response to OWS ought to be a simple, "It's understandable that people from across the political spectrum would be so fed up with the Obama economy that they are marching in the streets." And just leave it at that.
2. Has anybody asked Allan Lichtman if OWS is enough for him to revise his "keys," since the Tea Party apparently didn't count as civil unrest?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"... he’s almost certainly going to be in a tough spot on the “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” question ..."
Not if he can pin the blame on Republican and the rich. FDR got reelected several times with growing unemployment. Class warfare works.
Barack Obama will be reelected if the GOP doesn't come up with a clear alternative narrative. Romney only fits into Obama's narrative.
Rick Perry's promise to make the federal government as inconsequential as possible is the only clear alternative narrative in the GOP field.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePeter, I quibble with the FDR analogy. The nation was poorer, less educated and in really bad shape in the 1930s. The middle class, no thanks to FDR was decimated. Today I do not think that class warfare will work the same way. After all, the Dear Leader, President Obama, only won with 53% of the vote nationwide. Some of the states he won he just will not win again. That means no matter who the GOP nominates, and they hold on to the red states of 2008, they should win. It will only be a matter of how much.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFDR did not get reelected with growing unemployment.
Unemployment was extremely high in 1936, but it was declining rapidly, so Americans went to the polls feeling that a strong recovery was underway. This was followed by a catastrophic double dip Depression in 1937, but by that time Roosevelt had been reelected.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOf one thing you can be sure, NONE of the problems faced by this nation are Barry's fault. He said so himself. Spoken like a true "leader".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAre you better off than you were 12 years ago?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou need not answer the question 'are you smarter than you were in 2008?', because it's obvious that you are not!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama isn't running on a "recovery" narrative. He's running on an "I'm on your side and they aren't" narrative, which is making a lot of Republicans nervous. Why do you think Mitt Romney hilariously said, "I care about the 99%, not the 1%"? It's because he knows has Thurston Howell III written all over him.
Mike Huckabee nailed it years ago: "Romney looks like the guy who laid you off." Which, in fact, he was when he was at Bain Capital.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's safe to say Obama won't be using as a campaign song, "Happy Days Are Here Again."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama, Reid, and the other leading democrats are tone deaf. Even the far left understands that job growth is far from "just fine." The environment is ripe for a Republican presidential candidate who knows how to turn the economy around and create jobs. Romney is going to make a great candidate and an effective President.
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