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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

New Poll in Iowa: Cain, Romney Split Lead, Gingrich Just Behind



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JMC Enterprises sends along their latest poll of Iowa Republicans and finds a competitive race among likely caucus-goers: Herman Cain 20 percent, Mitt Romney 20 percent, Newt Gingrich 16 percent, Michele Bachmann 6 percent, Ron Paul 6 percent, Rick Perry 4 percent, Rick Santorum 4 percent, 23 percent undecided.

Their methodology: “For this poll, we chose a sample of known Republican households across the state for an automated poll.  We only sampled respondents who indicated they had some likelihood of attending the Iowa caucus.The survey was conducted November 2. The margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval, was 4.3%.”

The gender split surprises me a bit: “54% of the respondents were female, and 46% were male. The geographic breakdown of the respondents was as follows: 20% came from the 319 area code, 25% came from the 515 area code, 10% came from the 563 area code, 20% came from the 641 area code, and 25% came from the 712 area code. The survey was conducted November 2.”

I would note that in 2008, the split in the Republican caucus was precisely the opposite, 54 percent male, 46 percent male. Where were all the women? Voting in the Democrat caucus, which split 57 percent women, 43 percent men. But with no competitive race on the Democratic side this cycle, perhaps more Iowa women are planning on participating in the GOP primary.


Tags: Iowa Caucuses


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