The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

When You Think Election 2012, Think... ‘PAOHMIWIAMN.’


There is (sigh) more twists and turns of the story of Cain and his accusers in the Morning Jolt, as well as a look at the grim outlook for John Kasich’s reforms in Ohio, and the 2012 electoral map:

The Electoral Map, One Year Out

The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza looks at the 2012 electoral map and surmises, “There’s no question that President Obama faces one of the most challenging political environments in modern memory as he prepares to try to win a second term next November. But with one year to go before the 2012 election, a state-by-state examination of the battleground map suggests that the president still retains several plausible pathways to the 270 electoral votes he needs… Obama won three states — Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia — that no Democrat had carried at the presidential level in at least two decades, and he scored victories in six other states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio) that George W. Bush had won in 2004. Those nine states will account for 112 electoral votes in 2012 and stand at the center of the fight for the presidency. If Obama loses every one of them but holds on to the others he won, he will drop to 247 electoral votes and Republicans will win the White House. (The decennial reapportionment of congressional districts after the 2010 Census subtracts six electoral votes from states Obama won in 2008.) But with the exception of Indiana and its 11 electoral votes, Obama is very much in the game in those states. In several, even Republicans acknowledge that he is favored.”

He puts New Mexico and Iowa in the likely Obama pile at this point.

“Republicans shouldn’t get cocky,” concludes Betsy Newmark.

Hugh Hewitt: “It isn’t very good for an incumbent a year out, and if the GOP nominates a ticket that is competitive in the PA-OH-MI-WI-IA-MN region, then the map turns decidedly against the president. The betting is that Marco Rubio will be the GOP nominee’s obvious pick for Veep, but either Paul Ryan or Tim Pawleny add votes in this region.”

My prediction for the acronym of 2012: PAOHMIWIAMN.

This will be the last Morning Jolt for a little bit – the remainder of the week I’ll be on a personal trip and next week I’ll be on the National Review cruise. Apparently everyone on the cruise is used to getting their Morning Jolt, so I’ll be expected to write all of these out by hand and slide them under cabin doors by 8 a.m. on the ship. The Jolt will be back on November 21… just in time for Thanksgiving week, traditionally one of the slower news weeks of the year.

Tags: 2012


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