On MSNBC a moment ago, Chris Jansing gave Rick Perry’s spokesman Ray Sullivan grief over Perry’s current standing at 1 percent in the most recent New Hampshire primary polls. (Okay, Rasmussen had him at 3 percent and Public Policy Polling at 2 percent.)
A Texas governor emphasizing his social conservatism was never a likely frontrunner in the Granite State. You’ll recall that in 2000, another Texas governor, frontrunner George W. Bush, took his Iowa momentum into New Hampshire and promptly lost to John McCain by 33,000 votes, or 18 percentage points.
As Presidents Bush and Clinton will tell you, losing New Hampshire’s primary does not doom a candidate, as long as you do well enough in other primaries. (Clinton did manage to spin a distant second-place finish into a perceived comeback because his rival, Sen. Paul Tsongas, represented nearby Massachusetts.)
Also keep in mind that New Hampshire amounts to all of 12 delegates, out of the 2,286 total and 1,144 needed to win the nomination. To win a single delegate under New Hampshire’s proportional system, it only takes about 8.3 percent; if Mitt Romney were to win with his current 35 percent, he would win . . . four delegates. At some point, New Hampshire isn’t worth the cost, time, and effort to win one or two more delegates. (Of course, candidates may decide that the additional positive coverage and momentum make time in the state worthwhile.)
Perry’s real worries are his current mediocre standing in Iowa (12 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, putting him in fourth place in their calculations) and deeply disappointing 5.7 percent in South Carolina. As a Southern candidate, Perry must do better on his “home turf.”
Jansing also asked whether Perry’s legal case against the Virginia GOP presidential-primary ballot rules was a waste of time, money, and resources. Obviously, any trailing candidate has to make hard decisions on how to allocate limited resources, but remaining competitive for Virginia’s 50 delegates certainly would help Perry. The only Southern state that precedes Virginia is South Carolina; the commonwealth votes on Super Tuesday, March 6, along with Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
Perry’s road to victory is challenging but visible: Perform “well enough” in Iowa, South Carolina, hopefully Florida (although that contest remains winner-take-all, at least as of this writing), Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona, and then make his big push on Super Tuesday, consolidating the anti-Romney vote.
How is Florida not a southern state? The Republican primary will feature many voters who fall into traditional pro-GOP groups, such as persons of faith, anticommunists, second amendment enthusiasts, and small business owners.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's filled with a bunch of old New England'ers. Which is why I can't stand Florida.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt is great writing Mr. Geraghty. Highlights the silliness presented by some about the dire need for some Candidates having to win early.
But if I could just review the obvious...
Of course, as you well know, one needs healthy Primary showings to grow funding and legitimacy to compete in other Delegate rich arenas.
In some ways, however, New Hampshire remains important for it is still a reflection of the Country, representing the vote throughout much of the USA.
But in each early case, we see a vetting of the Candidates. Some simply don't stand up to the tests, and are fully exposed by the time we get to some major delegates. It always depends on those specifically involved. In this Primary for example, Perry and Gingrich are clearly not set up for a long haul. GW Bush and others were, having a very serious backing throughout the Country (beyond NH).
Also, one must remember the classic case of Rudy trying to merely run in Florida. It followed a seemingly logical strategy regarding the low delegate amounts in the early going, such as Iowa and NH. But failure to try in those early tests proved disastrous.
It might look good on paper, but the contest doesn't begin in the 3rd inning.
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