A new analysis by researchers at Tufts University confirms what many suspected: Young people are less interested in the 2012 race than they were in the 2008 race, and the young voters who supported Barack Obama by wide margins last cycle are not, at this point, inclined to back the incumbent president by the same margin.
A new, comparative analysis of current voter registration data in the key electoral states of Nevada and North Carolina shows a drastic drop from 2008 levels, when a record-high proportion of young Americans turned out overwhelmingly to cast their votes to elect Barack Obama as President.
“The state-specific data for young voters from both of these battleground states shows what can only be described as a profound loss of the registration advantage Democrats held during the 2008 election cycle,” said Peter Levine, Director of CIRCLE. “That decline is a warning sign for Barack Obama, since more than two-thirds of young voters supported the Obama/Biden ticket in 2008.”
North Carolina — Between November 2008 and November 2011, North Carolina saw a net gain of 93,709 in the number of overall, new registrations. However, youth registrants (ages 18-25) lost a net of 48,500 new registrations, while older adults (ages 26 and over) gained over 142,000 registrants. Of the 48,500 net loss in youth registrants, 80.4% were lost among registered Democrats, a net loss of 39,049 young Democratic registrants.
Nevada — Nevada’s registration rolls have shrunk by a net of 117,109 people since the 2008 election, of whom 50,912 (or 43% of the decline) are between the ages of 18-24. The significant challenge for Democratic candidates in Nevada in 2012, including the re-election campaign of President Barack Obama, is not the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Nevada youth, since Democratic young people still outnumber Republican young people on the registration rolls by 45,222 to 25,182. However, the potentially, negative electoral impact for the re-election campaign of President Obama is due to the decline in the youth share of all registrants — youth were 11% of Nevada’s registered voters in 2008 election but just 7.85% in October 2011. Given the overwhelming support young voters showed President Obama’s 2008 campaign, with nearly two-thirds of young voters casting their ballot for Obama, this drop in the share of the electorate comprised of young voters could prove a major difficulty to the 2012 re-election campaign for President Obama in Nevada.
Unsurprisingly, both states rank among the 11 highest in the nation in unemployed young people:
NORTH CAROLINA
Youth Unemployment Rate (20-24): 18.4%
Youth Unemployment Rate (16-19): 27%
Number of Unemployed Youth: 124,000
Overall Unemployment Rate: 10.5%
NEVADA
Youth Unemployment Rate (20-24): 19.6%
Youth Unemployment Rate (16-19): 32.8%
Number of Unemployed Youth: 43,000
Overall Unemployment Rate: 14.4%
With numbers like these, why should young people be enthusiastic to vote for the status quo?
The other states with the highest youth unemployment rates: Washington, Arizona, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio, California, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama.
That's great news, now lets not blow it with them by running on social issues when we should be talking about the economy.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYeah, what he said.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn NC, the loss of young Democrats is more than enough to completely wipe out Obama's '08 margin of victory.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSocial issues are economic issues. Questions of sexual morality go to the stability of family structure. Stable two parent families are the most important factor in educational success by a huge margin. Stable families reduce the rationale for ever growing non-productive government programs. Stable father and mother families police their own children and neighborhoods. Strong families are the key to economic strength
And like it or not, the key to stable families is the sanctity of the life long sexual relationship between one man and one woman producing and caring for their own biological children. Such families naturally take the long economic view since their concerns are multi-generational.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAll of that could very well be true but, like it or not, the great majority of voters don't tend to connect gay marriage laws to what the national debt will be in 20 years.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou mean [wipes away tears] my generation might [stifles sob] not be completely devoid of common sense after all?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDear Mr. Geraghty:
This is a very interesting study. I have already seen anecdotal evidence of the waning of enthusiasm among youthful Democratic voters. However, the above study, at least for Nevada, does not measure changes in enthusiasm. I have reviewed the website of the Nevada Secretary of State, and have determined that Nevada will drop a voter from the rolls based on evidence that a voter has left the state (i.e. returned mail, or data from the Postal Service).
Further study of the data suggests that the Obama people registered a huge number of youthful voters before the 2008 election, and that a substantial proportion of those voters no longer live in Nevada. Many of these must have been college students. The study does not prove that these voters will not vote in their current locations.
William H. Eilberg
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr Eilberg,
Even if they did, they would not be voting in Nevada. One could argue they will affect some other state, but those numbers would be reading in the opposite direction with another state's rolls (or not if they do not register there).
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"With numbers like these, why should young people be enthusiastic to vote for the status quo?"
Because under Obama and the Democrats, Social Security and Medicare have not been reformed (Republican Paul Ryan's proposals weren't even discussed) and these safety nets have been bankrupted (latest payroll tax reform pushed by Democrats, Obamacare which took money out of these institutions, etc).
Because over the last several years, rising challenges to America's supremacy have been left unchecked- China and Iran notably have been growing in influence and power and someday (not now, but in decades to come) these powers will be able to check America's influence around the world and hurt our standard of living.
Because the spending of recent years has been fueled by debt, which will be paid for by youth in the form of higher taxes, lower benefits, and higher inflation.
External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr Geraghty doesn't expect young people to vote for Romney. He just hopes they stay home.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLower youth support for Obama: Could it be that you first have to have a job in order to collect 99 weeks of unemployment?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat North Carolina and Nevada have in common is a history of young people being able to get good jobs and move up -- North Carolina with their research triangle of colleges, Nevada with an economy where a kid with a high school diploma and gumption coul dmove up quickly into management in the hospitality industry.
Unlike, say, Michigan and California, where the locals have devoted the last decade to ruining the economy, these are states where you can directly connect the dots of economic failure back to White House policies.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe real reason for the high youth unemployment rate through out the US is the ridiculous minimum wage laws.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUnless I missed it, this seems to be missing a disclaimer about how the Democrats don't have a competitive primary this year. At this point in 2008, the enthusiasm was already building over the new guy from Illinois as he was preparing to take on the Hillary juggernaut in Iowa. Obama's ads were running and his money was being spent, while the media was in full swoon.
At a gut level I buy that young voters will be less enthused than in 2008, but this seems like a problematic time to objectively test the thesis.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis demonstrates quite nicely why Obama was foolish to allow Republicans to change the subject from jobs (which they are weak on, since they have no plans other than cutting unemployment benefits) to deficit reduction.
Obama should have been relentlessly attacking Republicans for blocking jobs programs from the beginning, instead of acting like a fool trying to make a deal with Boehner. Unfortunately, a naive Obama thought he could change the poisoned partisan nature of Washington all by himself. He should have known that this was hopeless as soon as Republicans openly declared that their number one priority was to make him fail so that he would be a one-term President.
Republicans say that we, acting through out government, cannot do anything to solve the jobs problems. Obama's message: Yes we can!
Overall, President Obama can still be faulted for not proposing bold enough plans. However, he sure beats the do-nothing Republicans. I am sorry, but gimmicks like having poor elementary school children work as janitors is not a substitute for real action on jobs.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDavid Welker you are an "Einstein". Of course it was Einstein than said, "I don't know anything about ecomomics, but socialism is good.".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't think Obama's team believes they are going to win by talking about jobs.
External Link
Remember, the election doesn't hinge on the die-hard partisans but rather capturing the middle. The middle supports the president on some issues but rejected his job proposals by a 2-1 margin.
Obama never had any interest in changing the partisan nature of Washington. Among his first words were "I won." Since then, he has criticized people in forums were they couldn't defend themselves, blamed the other party for all his woes and failed even to consult with his own party before announcing major policy initiatives.
You did clearly state Obama's job policy: "Yes we can!" The fact that you cite that as an actual policy position speaks volumes. Perhaps he can up the stakes this year by announcing we will have "the coolest military evah!"
For those of us whose votes aren't cast years in advance, having a workable policy matters. His policies aren't. The debt is real. It's real money that actual people expect to be paid back with interest. Almost a trillion of it went to a plan you may think is not bold enough, but that was indeed already bloated with white elephants that go far beyond bailing out Obama's union donors (esp. UAW and SEIU) and giving rent seekers (esp. George Kaiser) on and off Wall Street a large dose of crony capitalism. On top of that, he has frozen capital with onerous requirements, ensuring everyone thinks long and hard before creating a job in the US.
Had Obama spent the past three years playing golf, the nation would be in better shape. I HOPE his rivals don't have a plan. We can't take any more dumb ideas.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDon't worry about the student vote. The Great Obama will forgive their student debt, but he make the effective date after the election, so he has to be around to complete it. They will have no choice but to vote for Obama.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse