Last night, I wondered if four of the “Not Romneys” would “have the self-control to stop hitting the other Not Romneys and focus on Romney?” For much of this morning, it appeared there would be two fewer of them, with indications that Perry and Bachmann would depart the race.
But now, perhaps not; Perry’s personal Twitter account just chirped, “And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State . . . Here we come South Carolina!!!” It featured this photo:
A race without Perry or Bachmann would be a surprisingly good development for Rick Santorum, as he has a solid chance to win over most of the potentially adrift Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann fans. Of course, this won’t be a big factor in the next contests; in New Hampshire Bachmann’s at 4 percent and Perry’s at 2.5 percent. In South Carolina, Bachmann’s at 7 percent and Perry is at 6 percent. In Florida, Perry is at 4 percent and Bachmann is at 3.5 percent. But after a seven-vote margin in Iowa, who could scoff at any additional votes?
But the biggest remaining challenge for Santorum’s rise to the status of the Ultimate Anti-Mitt is Newt Gingrich, and perhaps the cycle’s biggest clash of the titans will be the battle between Gingrich’s desire to hurt Romney by dropping out and Gingrich’s intense desire to be the nominee.
Santorum isn't really a anti-Mitt. Once people have time to digest Santorum's stance on birth control, free trade, big government they'll realize that Rich Santorum's conservative principles are a fantasy.
If it takes Rick Perry to do it, then so be it. In a depressing race between Santorum/Romney the former governor is the better choice.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI sure hope Perry sticks around while Santorum goes through the inevitable vetting. Santorum is high on my list, but there are reasons why five other candidates got their big look before he did. If Santorum can't capitalize on Iowa over the next few weeks, we could easily be looking for a new "not Romney" by February. Perry's always been the guy with the latent strength to go toe to toe with Romney. And unlike the problems with the other candidates, the reasons for rejecting Perry are disprovable. If Perry can keep getting on the ballot beyond Florida, he ought to do it.
For roughly the same reasons, if I were Mike Huckabee or Jeb Bush I'd be taking a hard second look at whether a late entry could be successful.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHe should stick in till South Carolina to see if he can rekindle the fire.
I doubt he can but he has come this far already.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLike Huckabee 4 years ago, Santorum currently has no money. Unlike Huckabee, Santorum has an organization in place in both NH and SC ready to build on Iowa. AND, he's got an attack dog like no other in Newt Gingrich ready to go kamikaze on Mitt in both states. In fact, given Newt's state of mind and readiness to go negative with ads and in the debates, Newt staying in the race should be considered a Santorum asset. Same with Huntsman. Perry contesting in SC, OTOH, is not good. But depending on the NH results and Perry's bank account, this may not matter much. Santorum has a message which I don't quite agree with but which goes beyond appealing to just social conservatives and can attract Reagan blue collar types in NH, SC, and the midwestern states. Romney has no such appeal. Given some money, the path is there.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGingrich is a small, sad, angry, delusional Napoleon who would gladly wound the eventual nominee - Santorum, Romney or whoever - out of personal pique.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt seems plausible to me, if unlikely, that Perry could make a comeback. With Bachmann out, and Newt going kamikaze on Romney, that leaves Santorum and Perry. And with Santorum's popularity not reaching far beyond social conservatives, I think Perry does well in a head-to-head matchup.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGovernor Perry should appear more often with his hair down. Or up. Or whatever that is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBachmann is out. Her votes will go somewhere, probably some to Perry.
Santorum hasn't been vetted yet. That process is starting. His support will be downgraded once people realize that he may be socially conservative, but is not fiscally conservative, and that he doesn't have executive leadership experience as governor of a state.
Ron Paul is...well, Ron Paul. Many of his supporters are Democrats and liberals crossing over to stir up trouble (see External Link
for their game plan). He can't consolidate the conservative vote because of his scary foreign policy views, and he's got that nagging newsletter problem (either he knew about the wacko viewpoints in them, meaning he tacitly approved of them, or he knew nothing about what was being published in them, meaning he was incompetent enough to let his editorial staff run amok).
Newt is in the process of going nuclear against Romney. This will hurt Romney a bit, because there's truth to it, and negative campaigns always work some, even though people don't "like" them. This will also hurt Newt...a lot, because he made such a fuss over being "above all that." Negative campaigns blow back on the person launching the attack, too. This could be Newt's kamikaze moment.
Romney can't get above 25%, no matter what he does or how much money he spends, except perhaps in New Hampshire, which is one of his three strongest states.
That leaves Perry as the anti-Romney. He has the money, the organization, the bona fide conservative principles, and the executive leadership experience of successfully governing one of the largest economies in the world.
Sure, he had a few lousy debate performances (potentially due to him just having had major back surgery), but his subsequent debate performances were very good and, in any event, Obama can't bring his teleprompter along to the debate and is not very good extemporaneously either. Would I love to watch Gingrich decimate Obama in a debate? Sure. What I would love more, though, is to know that we have a president who makes decisions based on real conservative principles and who has the experience to hit the ground running to start repairing the damage done during the Team Obama years.
And THAT'S why conservatives should give Rick Perry another look. He can win it for us, and actually start implementing that conservative/Tea Party agenda we all like to dream about.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBachmann is out. Her votes will go somewhere, probably some to Perry.
Santorum hasn't been vetted yet. That process is starting. His support will be downgraded once people realize that he may be socially conservative, but is not fiscally conservative, and that he doesn't have executive leadership experience as governor of a state.
Ron Paul is...well, Ron Paul. Many of his supporters are Democrats and liberals crossing over to stir up trouble (see External Link
for their game plan). He can't consolidate the conservative vote because of his scary foreign policy views, and he's got that nagging newsletter problem (either he knew about the wacko viewpoints in them, meaning he tacitly approved of them, or he knew nothing about what was being published in them, meaning he was incompetent enough to let his editorial staff run amok).
Newt is in the process of going nuclear against Romney. This will hurt Romney a bit, because there's truth to it, and negative campaigns always work some, even though people don't "like" them. This will also hurt Newt...a lot, because he made such a fuss over being "above all that." Negative campaigns blow back on the person launching the attack, too. This could be Newt's kamikaze moment.
Romney can't get above 25%, no matter what he does or how much money he spends, except perhaps in New Hampshire, which is one of his three strongest states.
That leaves Perry as the anti-Romney. He has the money, the organization, the bona fide conservative principles, and the executive leadership experience of successfully governing one of the largest economies in the world.
Sure, he had a few lousy debate performances (potentially due to him just having had major back surgery), but his subsequent debate performances were very good and, in any event, Obama can't bring his teleprompter along to the debate and is not very good extemporaneously either. Would I love to watch Gingrich decimate Obama in a debate? Sure. What I would love more, though, is to know that we have a president who makes decisions based on real conservative principles and who has the experience to hit the ground running to start repairing the damage done during the Team Obama years.
And THAT'S why conservatives should give Rick Perry another look. He can win it for us, and actually start implementing that conservative/Tea Party agenda we all like to dream about.
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