A Jolt reader who works in the advertising industry weighs in on Rick Santorum’s 1,000-point television ad buy in South Carolina:
Buying at that level could either be a big deal or a very big deal. Here’s why: I’m assuming that 1,000 points means 1,000 Gross Rating Points [GRPs]. GRPs are an index. A 100 GRP buy means that everyone in the station or channel’s audience is exposed to your message an average of once; some people may see it twice, some once, some not at all. A decent television buy is of the order of 150-200 GRPs per week. So if they’re buying 1,000 GRPs over the two weeks between now and January 21, that’s 500 GRPs per week, or two-and-a-half times the normal buy’s weight. If the 1,000 GRPs are concentrated in one week, that’s five to 6.7 times the weight and frequency of a normally effective television buy.
If Santorum ends up winning SC, he will be in a strong position to be the nominee. Of all the early primary/caucus contests; SC has the best predictablity record in determining who ends up as the ultimate nominee.
New Hampshire is meaningless this year. Everyone assumes (and has so for months) that Romney will win that state and win it big (40-50% win with 20%+ gap to his closest competitor). All Romney can hope for is to meet that expectation.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAh, no...
NH is never meaningless, never.
Your dreaming with emotive fantasies, trying to write a script to fulfill your biased approach.
The irony is, now you are for Santorum? After all the other candidates, Perry, Gingrich, etc?
Your bias against Romney is becoming more apparent. Reminds one of the Democratic Partisans, who deeply fear Mr. Romney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseReminds one of the Democratic Partisans, who deeply fear Mr. Romney.
With all due respect, who fears Romney? Barry Sowerto has been running against Romney for months now. The media wing of the democrat party has been telegraphing it since Occupy Wall Street. Romney is the one percent. Before the media wing eats him, they must first make him fat.
The one they're most scared of is anyone who is truly conservative. They'll let you know who that is by declaring that that person as "unelectable".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe so, but if Romney wins SC, even by a narrow plurality, he will BE the nominee.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs a mom who experienced the death of an infant and struggled with the emotional fallout of that trauma for many, many years thereafter, I think Rick and Karen Santorum dealt with their tragedy in the most healthy way I can imagine. I feel sure that it was Karen's experience as a neo-natal intensive care nurse that gave her the insight to deal with it this way. I only wish that I had had that same insight. My husband and I and our other children would all have ended up with far fewer scars. The depth of the tragedy can perhaps be suggested by the fact that (the last time I looked at the stats) 85% of couples who experience the death of a child are divorced within 5 years thereafter. This is truly a situation in which one shouldn't criticize others unless one has walked personally through that peculiar corner of hell.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHuh? 1000 GRPs over two weeks is a very big buy, compared to a "decent" 150-200 per week?
I'm afraid not. Not for a guy who has barely introduced himself to South Carolina, will be up against a strong pro-Romney buy as well as ads from Paul and Perry and who knows how much of an attack buy from hostile super-PACs whose ads can define Santorum before he gets the chance to introduce himself.
Anything less would likely leave Santorum slumping again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJohn Burke is conflating my comment about relative size of media buys with what he sees as the effect, or lack of one, on Santorum's chances. As television buys go, 1000 GRPs is at least five times bigger than the typical television schedule. That's just arithmetic, not politics. What does or doesn't happen as a result of that media buy is an entirely different story.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSurprisingly, against the narrative of many professionals on the sideline, Mr. Romney has a strong poll lead in SC. Perhaps the endorsement of Gov. Haley has a strong push, or McCain, or Christie, Thune, Dole, etc.
But then again, Romney is a very strong Candidate.
Rick, a Washington politician of 17 years, may have troubles outside of Iowa, even in his own State in PA. Especially when he speaks of having some claim to the American Public's "bedroom":
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down and regulations low, that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom or in cultural issues. That is not how traditional conservatives view the world."