Looking at some polls out today and yesterday though the lens of “Newtrick Peringrichum,” a figure who would unify all of the supporters of Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry:
Rasmussen’s latest in Florida: Romney 41, Newtrick Peringrichum 36.
Insider Advantage, South Carolina: Romney 23, Newtrick Peringrichum 40.
Gallup tracking, national: Romney 31, Newtrick Peringrichum 37.
The good news is that if two of the three dropped out, and all of the supporters of those candidates unified behind the remaining candidate, that remaining candidate would indeed be in strong position to win, or at least be well situated to fight Romney all the way to the convention.
But it’s still worth noting that the support for the three candidates touted as “the Conservative Candidate” tops out at about 40 percent or so. The notion that the Republican party consists overwhelmingly, or even mostly, of conservatives who find Mitt too moderate doesn’t quite hold water.
"But it’s still worth noting that the support for the three candidates touted as “the Conservative Candidate” tops out at about 40 percent or so. The notion that the Republican party consists overwhelmingly, or even mostly, of conservatives who find Mitt too moderate doesn’t quite hold water."
Listen closely, and you can hear the sound of Michael Walsh's head exploding.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI like the idea aggregating the non-Romney votes as a guide. Of course, the math assumes that 100% of each individual vote totals go to the aggregate. But, very nice guide and one I started doing in my head. Now, it is in writing.
My only request, and I think you do this, is to use legitimate polls and not a poll every four hours that happens to come out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGiven that Huntsman is likely to be forced out soon, what happens when you add on his votes to create Jitt Huntsney (or should that be Mon Romnsman)?
Answer:
Florida: (I'm going to plump for Jitt) Huntsney 46pc
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSouth Caroline: Huntsney 29.8pc
National: Huntsney 33pc
The three are not the same. Unless Perry was drugged during his early debates, he is showing signs of early senility. Newt is a little bit (maybe more than a little bit) crazy and, even if I agreed with him down the line, I do not want him with his finger on the button - frankly, I trust Obama more (something I just realized and it scares me to death). Santorum is sincere and honest but is a big-government social conservative.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn the PPP SC poll, in head to head matches Romney won everybody else, Santorum was only one who get even somewhat close.
not-Romney - Romney results from PPP SC poll
Gingrich: 35 - 49
Paul: 23 - 67
Perry: 29 - 57
Santorum: 40 - 45
Insider Advantage isn't really one of the most accurate polls.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Geraghty, you should really be careful in using poll data from...
"Insider Advantage"
*** Another fine NR reader pointed out, wisely, "The polling firm Insider Advantage CEO is Matt Towery, who is a former chairman to one of Newt's political organization. The two have longstanding and well documented ties..."
Another fine NR reader pointed out as well, Insider Advantage polled Romney ten points lower than his actual offering in NH.
It was stunning to see Ms. Gallagher and Mr. Krauthammer foolishly fall for the Gingrich-Perry-Left regarding Bain. This is unfortunate, for they may have accepted a baseless rumor about the affect of these anti-Capitalist attacks, based purely on a Gingrich Team Member playing the game with poll numbers.
"The good news is that if two of the three dropped out..."
Even if we could pick one of them, they are all weak Public Sector Politicians who would be disasters in a National Election.
Besides, Mr. Romney is an excellent offering, who can win the General and has the potential to be a sound President.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI would like to see some more polling out of SC, which I am sure there will be a lot more out Friday morning as they will have had two full days after NH to do call and poll people. Also InsiderAdvantage is not a very good polling firm, they are very hit and miss.
And the latest gallup has Romney at 34% nationally, tied with Peringrichum's 34%.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage....we poll as we poll..we have often polled Gingrich.with very low numbers...by the way, we did not poll in New Hampshire. We were the most accurate polling Iowa in RCP average....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage....we poll as we poll..we have often polled Gingrich.with very low numbers...by the way, we did not poll in New Hampshire. We were the most accurate polling Iowa in RCP average....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage....we poll as we poll..we have often polled Gingrich.with very low numbers...by the way, we did not poll in New Hampshire. We were the most accurate polling Iowa in RCP average....
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse