A couple of Sarah Palin fans are looking at today’s article about the proposed, and ultimately dismissed, idea of writing in Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, or Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan in New Hampshire’s primary and wondering whether to try to write in Palin in the remaining GOP primaries and caucuses.
If a Draft Palin movement were to begin in earnest, the best-case scenario would leave the former Alaska governor with a decent number of delegates, but not enough to win the nomination — unless she pulled off the Tebow-esque political miracle of winning a significant number of delegates in primaries as a write-in option. While anything is technically possible by persuading enough Republican primary voters, it would be a Herculean task. (For Palin, perhaps Athena is the better metaphor?)
The first task would be to get Palin listed on the ballot in the states where the primary ballot is not yet finalized. The deadline to qualify for the Rhode Island Republican presidential primary ballot is tomorrow, January 19, with just two weeks to secure 1,000 valid signatures on their nomination papers to earn a spot on the ballot. So perhaps Palin wouldn’t be able to get on the ballot in Rhode Island, putting any or more than a handful of its 19 delegates out of reach.
A candidate entering today would, at least in theory, have time to get on the ballots in West Virginia (January 28), Kentucky (January 31), Indiana (February 10), Pennsylvania (February 14), Delaware (February 24), Arkansas (March 1), Connecticut (March 2), Oregon (March 6), Nebraska (March 7), Montana (March 12), Utah (March 15), California (March 23), and South Dakota (March 27).
Most Republican caucuses do not have any formal filing deadline; to compete in those contests, the candidate would simply have needed a group of dedicated supporters registered to vote in those caucuses. These states include Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming.
An all-out Draft Palin effort could get her on the ballot in 24 states, not counting Rhode Island. The primary states still open to new candidates offer up to 604 delegates, and the caucus states still open to new candidates offer up to 371 delegates. That adds up to 975 delegates, which is less than the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Of course, if Palin were to go into a divided GOP convention with a couple hundred delegates, she might be in a position to play kingmaker. But she has seemed reluctant to pursue that option, never formally endorsing any of the remaining GOP candidates.
Informally, however . . .
Hannity asked Palin if she was any closer to an endorsement of a presidential candidate.
“Well, I could tell you what I would do if I were a South Carolinian,” Palin told Hannity.
“That’s close to an endorsement,” Hannity said.
“If I had to vote in South Carolina, in order to keep this thing going I’d vote for Newt and I would want this to continue,” Palin said. “More debates, more vetting of candidates because we know the mistake made in our country four years ago was having a candidate that was not vetted, to the degree that he should have been so that we knew what his associations and his pals represented and what went into his thinking, the shaping of who our president today is.”
In short, she is urging, “Vote Newt, at least for now.” Gingrich must be wondering if he can get her to say that in a formal ceremony.
Sarah is very smart. Either she's being a sincere and able pundit, offering frank advice to viewers in a disinterested way that doesn't really help any of the candidates, or she's advancing a steath candidacy by putting out a trial balloon that will make any Newt surge in SC read like a demonstration of Palin's unmatched vitality among Republicans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSarah Palin is Rick Perry without his smarts.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTwo parts to her comments, IMO. The longer the race drags on, the more someone will be writing about a long shot Palin candidacy, and the more money she makes. In all honesty, I think she does like Newt a little more. Newt mentioned after Todd's "endorsement" that Todd told him that Todd liked him because he was socially conservative but an economic populist. I think it's pretty clear that Newt is pretending to be a populist but I can see that appealing to the Palin family. She'll be on board with whoever gets the nomination, though.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have a better and more sincere question for most NRO pundits.Have you bought your Mitt knee pads yet?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseExcellent news. Whatever it takes, the Country is at stake. Gov. Palin is the only one to defeat obama. "Draft the Palin".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJim,
In Oregon the Secretary of State has the power to put candidates on the ballot. That's how Reagan got on the ballot both for President and VP in 1968 (also put on the Oregon presidential ballot in 1968 were Nixon, Charles Percy and Nelson Rockefeller for Republicans and Lyndon Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy and George Wallace for Democrats). The candidate can only take his name off the ballot by filing an affidavit that he is not now nor intends to be a candidate for the office in the forthcoming presidential election.
The Oregon Secretary of State's office has said Oregon primary presidential candidates will be announced sometime in February. So, it's possible Palin might be put on the Oregon ballot as well as Chris Christie though both have said they are not candidates. Both would have to file an affidavit to take their names off. I don't think the Oregon Secretary of State will put them on the ballot, but it is in her power.
It seems pretty clear that Gov. Palin is currently backing the nomination of one of the current candidates. If it gets to the convention, and there is no clear winner, that would be the best possibility for a Palin nomination. That was Reagan's strategy in 1968.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"...it would be a Herculean task. (For Palin, perhaps Athena is the better metaphor?)"
Xena
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe great thing about Sarah Palin is....how she'd never see how self-referential and ironic this is...
"because we know the mistake made in our country four years ago was having a candidate that was not vetted....."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'd love to see them nominate the brain dead Palin. The party would get what it so richly deserves. I like Paul's answer on taxes too....why not 0 percent? All cuts pay for themselves, don't they?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI used to like Sarah, but with that statement, she fell below Perry in my estimation.
Extending this internecine warfare is about the last thing any of us should want. Vetting is one thing, but mutual assured destruction is insane. This is really not good for either the tea party movement, the GOP or any of the candidates. Primaries are intended to show who is the best candidate, not to divide us into armed camps and give the advantage to the other party.
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