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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.


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Will There Be a ‘Bella Santorum’ Effect in Florida?

With Bella Santorum on the mend, and her father Rick returning to the campaign trail (although not to Florida, but to Missouri and Minnesota), perhaps it is safe to wonder whether the drama of the Santorum family’s sudden scare will have any late impact on Tuesday’s results.

Santorum has been a distant third or fourth in the recent Florida polls, finishing with 11 to 16 percent. But I have yet to encounter anyone who thinks worse of a man who suspends his campaign and rushes to his home state to be with his hospitalized daughter. Quite a few folks across the spectrum are saluting Santorum for demonstrating that he’s a man who knows what matters most to him. First Santorum had an above-the-fray, winning performance in Thursday’s debate, and this weekend he demonstrates he’s a man who puts his family first. He needed a way to break through the back-and-forth between Romney and Gingrich in the final days, and this event, tragic and terrifying as it was, probably did that.

For now, the polling evidence of a late boost for the former Pennsylvania senator is scant, although the timing of the polls makes it difficult to measure. Looking at the polls conducted entirely or partially on Sunday and the preceding results from the same pollster, Insider Advantage has him increasing from 8 to 12, PPP (conducted Saturday and Sunday) has him dropping slightly from 15 to 14. Rasmussen (conducted Saturday) has him steady at 12, and Quinnipiac (conducted Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) has him slipping slightly from 12 to 11.

What will the exit polls tell us about late deciders in the Florida primary? Because of the popularity of early voting (591,000 votes cast already!), the percentage of the electorate that is “late deciders” is probably smaller than in other contests. But because of Florida’s massive size (4 million Florida Republicans, about 2 million primary votes expected), the total number of late deciders is still pretty significant.

Tags: Rick Santorum

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COMMENTS   7

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   01/30/12 10:25

Reread third graph first sentence again. Missing word makes for and uncomfortable idea.

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   01/30/12 11:08

If you vote for Santorum because of this you really shouldn't be voting.

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Miikeb
   01/30/12 11:56

Considering that I can't stand Romney or Gingrich, this puts Santorum back in the spotlight for another consideration.

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   01/30/12 14:00

I can see some people voting for Rick over this, but only if they were otherwise inclined to him anyway. I have and had no doubt that Santorum would have reacted this way. He loves his kids.
I would vote for Santorum anyway, but -- even in the event i thought he were going to lose regardless -- I would be sure to cast my vote as a show of support for this wonderful family.

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 EBL
   01/30/12 14:07

I am glad to hear Bella is okay. But I do not think that issue is going to move a lot of Florida voters from their current choices. I think Santorum deserves more attention for his overall conservative principles. And I am hoping this endorsement helps: External Link 

If Jonah thinks Newt in the race helps Mitt be a better candidate, Santorum in the race helps Newt and Mitt be better candidates. He deserves a close look.

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   01/30/12 19:20

I think it could actually hurt him. Yes he loves his family and that's great, but what happens if he gets elected and the same thing happens? Does he put the country on hold?

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Emcee
   01/30/12 21:39

That's an odd idea. Presidents tackle many things at once. I'm sure Obama has spent more time on the links than Santorum would spend in the hospital with his ailing child. When a president's away from the Oval Office, it doesn't necessarily mean the country is "on hold."

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