Gallup has released Obama’s average job approval rating for 2011 in all 50 states (and D.C.).
The numbers are pretty lousy-to-awful in most of the swing states.
Wisconsin: 47.4 percent.
Pennsylvania: 45 percent.
Virginia: 44.5 percent.
Oregon: 44.5 percent.
North Carolina: 43.7 percent.
Florida: 43.6 percent.
Ohio: 42.1 percent.
New Mexico: 41.7 percent.
Nevada: 41.3 percent.
Colorado: 40.4 percent.
New Hampshire: 38.7 percent.
Of course, “I approve of the job President Obama is doing” does not necessarily correlate to “I will vote for him in 2012,” and vice versa. Voters who are disappointed with Obama might prefer him as president to the GOP option.
But, all things considered, this is a very weak position for an incumbent president to begin an election year.
The NH result is interesting. The other day Jim had the election projection.com write up and it was 272-266 in the EV for Obama. If you go to the site you see he has NH for obama, but calls it weak Dem. If his approval stays at 38% & all else holds that would flip the EV in favor of Romney. (on a different note - remind me again why any small state would be in favor of switching to the popular vote)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe problem with those averages is that Obama's approval rating has surged to over 50% in some of those states, so they're now meaningless. For example, Obama is going to cruise in WI...it's no longer even a battleground according to the latest poll here. Obama starts 2012 in much stronger position than he entered last year in. I don't see how he loses unless there is some 08 style financial collapse again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLove that 47.7 is above average but not above 50%. That's a heck of a way to have to begin a campaign to get re-elected.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat New Hampshire number just made my day.
There are some likely scenarios where NH's 4 votes takes the R's from 266 to 270 or 268 to 272.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou think Newt and Mitt are vicious, wait till the general--Axelrod will be like a cornered rat... It will be ugly.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere is a 88.3% correlation between the 2010 democratic voting results and these results. It was Michael Barone who said there is a high correlation between the preceeding congressional results and the next presidential electoral results. If you use these as an indicator, with the 2010 votes as a backup, Obama looses 213 to 325.
I plan to do a more sophisticated statistical analysis on the weekend, but I think the numbers are plain. It is the RepublcRats to loose. And never let it be said that the Dumb Party can't screw it up when it runs against the Evil Party. Clearly the same sentiment that threw the demonRats out of office in 2010 has not evaporated.
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