Over at Politico, they point out that the recent happy talk surrounding Obama’s reelection chances are . . . not quite the whole story:
To hear Democrats (and much of the media) tell it, President Barack Obama is a man on the rebound…
There is a big problem with this Pollyanna punditry: There are a bunch of real-time numbers coming in that tell a much different tale.
In short, there’s a new Congressional Budget Office report that shows unemployment likely to climb to nearly 9 percent by the election, there’s polling data showing Obama tied or trailing Mitt Romney in the most important swing states (and doing only marginally better against Ron Paul), and there is mounting evidence that the assumption of a decisive Obama fundraising advantage for the fall might be flat wrong. All of this is happening while Republicans are at their worst, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich spending millions of dollars and using all of their air time explaining why the other is untrustworthy, deeply flawed and eminently beatable by Obama.
Back in August, former Bush strategist Mark McKinnon observed:
The average measure of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (the gold standard) for incumbent presidents when they win is 95.9. For incumbents when they lose, the average is 78.4. The index today is at 55.7.
This week:
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 75 from 69.9 at the end of December. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for 74, which matched the preliminary reading. The gauge averaged 89 in the five years leading up to the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.
In other words, under Obama, consumer confidence is almost all the way back up to the level of a losing incumbent.
just like the press argued that we were in a recession in 1992 to get Clinton elected, that the rebound in '96 was due to him, and not Congress, they will tell the Big Lie that we are in a recovery or that the economy is going gangbusters. Be ready for the flood of stories direct from the DNC. All we can do is say "no it's not," whatever the phony stat of the week from the White House is, and never accept the premise..
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe recent enthusiasm of the MSNBC koolaid drinker types for Obama's "sure thing" reelection is pretty puzzling.
Obama's national approval has only rebounded from ~40% to ~45%, which still has him on the cusp of electability.
Using latest state-by-state Gallup polls: Obama has to win all the states where his approval rating is 44% or higher to get enough EV to barely win 277-261 (and this based on the flukey result of Obama winning GA) -- if he only manages to win the ones where he has 45% or higher approval, it looks like FL, OH and CO are going red this time -- and maybe PA, though Republicans wouldn't even need it. What are the odds his vote can exceed his approval ratings by the 5-6% needed in these swing states?
And this poll was probably completed before the Catholic Charities flap: his approval with Hispanics had already fallen to 55%, wouldn't be surprised if this issue brings it even lower. Goodbye, NV and NM.
I also read something recently about Obama's "5 paths to EC victory", and noted that some of them were very far-fetched, and none had him getting more than 275 EV's (270 needed to win.) So the Dem strategy seems likely to focus on "destroying" the Republican in a few places with massive attack ads in order to just barely get over the hump -- if he wins, Obama is not going to have a mandate, in fact he'll be further diminished (and Republicans probably win both houses of congress either way.) The victory will be Pyrrhic.
And if unemployment is 9% in the fall? It would take a miracle for Obama's approval ratings to be any higher than they are today. He's barely electable at 45%, I don't see any plausible way for him to win if Obama's approval falls back toward 40%. (Other than a strong third party candidate, and I don't think Ron Paul would hurt Republicans as much as might be assumed -- he's siphon a lot of under-30 voters off from Obama too.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs it just me or is it hot in here?
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