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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Quinnipiac: Obama Barely Ahead of Romney, Santorum



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A new NBC/Marist poll of Michigan puts Romney at 37 percent, Santorum at 35 percent, Ron Paul at 13 percent, and Newt Gingrich at 8 percent.

Meanwhile, this morning Quinnipiac unveils a new national poll:

Former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum leads the Republican presidential field with 35 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 26 percent among Republicans and independent voters leaning Republican nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. In November matchups, President Barack Obama edges Santorum, while the race with Romney is too close to call,

Santorum leads Romney head-to-head 50 – 37 percent.

Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters say 48 – 37 percent it would be bad for the GOP if none of the current candidates wins enough delegates to be nominated and the Republican National Convention nominates someone not in the primary race, a so-called “brokered convention,” the independent Quinnipiac University survey finds.

In today’s nationwide survey, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 14 percent, with Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul at 11 percent.

But if the GOP convention picks a new candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the top choice of Republicans, with 32 percent, followed by former governors Sarah Palin of Alaska and Jeb Bush of Florida with 20 percent each and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels with 15 percent.

Here’s a number that will jump out, as they run against the conventional wisdom that Romney is more electable than Santorum, and that Obama’s reelection prospects are looking significantly better.

General election match-ups show:

·         President Obama with 46 percent tor Romney’s 44 percent;

·         Obama inching past Santorum 47 – 44 percent.

Although this is Quinnipiac University’s first national poll this year, all of the numerous surveys of key states this year, including Florida, Ohio and Virginia, show Romney doing better against Obama than Santorum.

In this national poll, the president benefits from his 46 – 41 percent lead over Romney and 49 – 39 percent margin over Santorum among independent voters.

But here’s the key: This is all among registered voters:

From February 14 – 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,605 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 1,124 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

If Obama’s ahead by 2 against Romney and by 3 against Santorum among registered voters (and under 50 against both) . . . how would his numbers look among likely voters?


Tags: Barack Obama , Mitt Romney , Polling , Rick Santorum


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