This morning Quinnipiac finds Ohio’s Republican presidential primary tightening, but Rick Santorum still leads:
The Republican presidential face-off in Ohio is too close to call as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 36 – 29 percent Santorum lead in a February 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll, the day before the hotly-contested Michigan primary.
In today’s survey, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 17 percent, with 12 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. Among voters who name a candidate, 34 percent say they still might change their mind by Tuesday.
The gender gap might have hurt Santorum in Michigan, but it’s not cropping up in the Buckeye State, or at least not yet.
Santorum leads Romney 34 – 28 percent among men and 37 – 33 percent among women, 40 – 27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42 – 25 percent among Tea Party members. Romney leads Santorum 46 – 26 percent among self-described moderates.
“At this point, the Buckeye State is too close to call and is clearly a two-man race between Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mitt Romney,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “A third of the electorate say they still might change their mind. With five days until Super Tuesday, they certainly will be exposed to enough negative television ads to provide fodder for those who might want to switch – or switch off.”
From February 29 – March 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 517 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
Another fascinating wrinkle: working-class populist Rick Santorum is winning among those making more than $100,000 per year, 42 percent to 33 percent for Romney.
Meanwhile, among those making $30,000 per year or less… Romney narrowly leads Santorum, 33 percent to 32 percent.
Narratives. Who needs ‘em?
Those income splits look really weird. Small sub-sample noise, maybe? Romney has consistently run very strong among $100K+ voters. And he's losing them by nine to Santorum? I dunno...
But there's no doubt that OH is getting very, very close. Rasmussen's latest shows Santorum up by two. External Link
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseConervatives win races while moderates like Ford, Dole and McCain lose them. Romney is McCain 2.
Also conservatives, usually Christian conservatives, are the people who volunteer to get out the vote (GOTV). If Santorum is the nominee - he will have those people for GOTV. They will not show up to help Romney or Gingrich. This is why the left want Romney.
Someone should ask RINO Rove about who were the GOTV volunteers for Bush in 2000 and 2004. He was too busy cashing checks while we were making calls and walking precincts. We will not show up for Willard or Newt.
Santorum can beat Obama in the Midwest, the key swing states and all the red states. The RNC/GOP just don't get it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAbsolutely correct that it's the social conservatives/religious right who are the boots on the ground and do the volunteer work if they're motivated. Romney will be lucky to motivate someone enough to put a free lawn sign up.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"We will not show up for Willard or Newt." And that makes you sound like a petulant child. Like Brother Geraghty said in this morning's Jolt: "...if one of my less-preferred candidates ends up getting the nomination (COUGH, Newt, COUGH), hey, affix bayonets and charge, and let's make that guy president. We can deal with his flaws after the inauguration."
Don't just take your ball and go home. That doesn't help anyone but the Left.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDistrict Dawg - I read the comments to refer to the active GOTV effort - not staying home on election day. Like with McCain, no doubt most of the religious right (of whom I am one) will exercise our stewardship and vote against Obama. However, make no mistake, that is mainly what it will be - a vote against Obama, not a vote for Romney.
Thus, given that politics is NOT a religion to us as it is the left and the rest of the secular world, we will be far less likely to sacrifice the time (and money) and effort to GOTV. Again, a comparison to Bush's 2004 race (a vote FOR Bush) and McCain's 2008 race (a vote against Obama) makes this obvious.
When has a moderate ever rallied the GOTV? That's a job done by the base. And us social-cons, as much as it pains so many in the GOP, are an essential part of the base without which the GOP does not win another national election.
I couldn't even muster a yard sign for McCain at my place...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnyone commenting for RINO RomneyCare and who has not done GOTV has no clue. Conservatives do GOTV not moderate voters. Church going conservatives. Moderates are at home watching ball games.
Making hundreds and thousands of calls for a candidate is not a lot of fun after the 1,000th call. Walking precincts and visiting 500 houses on a Sat or Sunday takes a lot of effort and guts.
Seeing the GOP suits show up for 5 minutes to thank the church going conservatives making the calls was also uneasy. Like Rush has said - The RINO GOP really is not crazy about conservatives. I did it for Bush and after he and Rove started talking amnesty - I was sorry I wasted my time.
Good luck if we nominate RomneyCare - the father of ObamaCare or Gingrich because conservatives will not be making the calls or walking the precincts. Unless you have volunteered and done the free work on weekends, days and nights then you have no clue. Romney is McCain 2. I tried to get myself to volunteer in 2008 but McCain was so weak an apologetic to Obama it was sickening. McCain is great at attacking conservatives. Romney and Ron Paul share this odd malady.
If Rick Santorum is the nominee - I will be making calls and walking precincts. Anyone else - forget it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCan't help but wonder if a concerted effort to lie to pollsters. Was polled twice in one week last week - wonder how much of that is going around.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney supporter here. Among the three non-Pauls, I see him as most conservative. Keep wondering how others see him as least.
Will have hard time supporting Newt but between him and Obama, it gets easier. I have followed Newt since 1974 and the better you know him the harder it is to support him - he has an erratic streak that scares the heck out of me.
Am sick of Obama doing his own messing around in the mid-East. Wish everyone would listen a little more to Ron Paul.