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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Ohio: Santorum Still Ahead, But Romney Gaining



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This morning Quinnipiac finds Ohio’s Republican presidential primary tightening, but Rick Santorum still leads:

The Republican presidential face-off in Ohio is too close to call as former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has 35 percent of likely Republican primary voters to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 36 – 29 percent Santorum lead in a February 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University poll, the day before the hotly-contested Michigan primary.

In today’s survey, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 17 percent, with 12 percent for Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul.  Among voters who name a candidate, 34 percent say they still might change their mind by Tuesday.

The gender gap might have hurt Santorum in Michigan, but it’s not cropping up in the Buckeye State, or at least not yet.

Santorum leads Romney 34 – 28 percent among men and 37 – 33 percent among women, 40 – 27 percent among self-described conservatives and 42 – 25 percent among Tea Party members.  Romney leads Santorum 46 – 26 percent among self-described moderates.

“At this point, the Buckeye State is too close to call and is clearly a two-man race between Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mitt Romney,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “A third of the electorate say they still might change their mind.  With five days until Super Tuesday, they certainly will be exposed to enough negative television ads to provide fodder for those who might want to switch – or switch off.”

From February 29 – March 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 517 Ohio likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. 

Another fascinating wrinkle: working-class populist Rick Santorum is winning among those making more than $100,000 per year, 42 percent to 33 percent for Romney.

Meanwhile, among those making $30,000 per year or less… Romney narrowly leads Santorum, 33 percent to 32 percent.

Narratives. Who needs ‘em?


Tags: Mitt Romney , Ohio , Rick Santorum


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