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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Politico: Romney Narrowly Leads; Right Direction/Wrong Track Numbers Awful



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Good morning:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a dead heat in the presidential race six months before the election.

Mitt Romney edged out President Barack Obama 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a number well within the margin of error, as Republicans rapidly consolidate behind the likely GOP nominee.

The former Massachusetts governor has opened up a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among independents in a poll conducted Sunday, April 29 through Thursday, May 3 and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely” to vote in November. Obama led Romney by 9 points overall in POLITICO’s February’s poll.

Elsewhere in the Politico poll, an entire 33 percent think the country is headed in the right direction; 52 percent feel “strongly” that the country is on the wrong track.

If you remove leaners, the “Republican candidate” leads Obama, 45 percent to 42 percent.

An entire 43 percent are certain that they will vote for Barack Obama in November.

There is an interesting, although not surprising, split in how voters view Mitt Romney’s Mormon beliefs.

Among Republicans, 5 percent say Romney’s Mormonism makes them more likely to vote for him, 82 percent say “no difference,” and 12 percent say “less likely.” Among “ticket splitters”, the divide is 2 percent “more likely,” 2 percent “unsure,” 88 percent “no difference” and 8 percent “less likely.”

Among Democrats, only 1 percent say Romney’s Mormonism makes them more likely to vote for him, 1 percent “unsure,” 80 percent “no difference,” and 18 percent say “less likely.”


Tags: Barack Obama , Mitt Romney


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