The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Mitt Romney, Exciting Ladies Like He’s Paul Ryan or Something


In the Tuesday edition of the Morning Jolt, Romney adopts an Obama fundraising tactic, the latest tea leaves in the Wisconsin recall, and then this eye-opening poll result:

Mitt Romney, With a Small Lead Among… Women?!?

Good morning, Mr. President!

I’ll let CBS News offer the latest bit of evidence that Shamus-gate, Bully-gate, Closed-Steel-Factory-gate, and The Chronicles of Julia have not yet proven to be the game changes that David Axelrod hoped:

Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in the race for the White House in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney’s slight advantage remains within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied. 

So here’s the weird part:

Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 – months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.

Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama’s performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved. Except for the month following the death of Osama bin Laden, when Mr. Obama’s approval rating ticked up to 57 percent, this matches highest his approval rating Mr. Obama has enjoyed in two years.

Romney now leads the president among independents, while Mr. Obama has an advantage among moderates. Independents opted for Romney 43 percent to Mr. Obama’s 36 percent, whereas moderates supported Mr. Obama 50 percent to Romney’s 39 percent.

But once again, the gender gap is key. Among men, Romney leads 45 percent to 42 percent, and among women… hey, wait a minute! Romney is at 46 percent, Obama is at 44 percent!

Tim Miller, formerly with Jon Huntsman, now with the RNC, notices, “When a campaign is publicly litigating the crosstabs/methodology of a poll showing them losing that’s a good sign things aren’t going well.”

Tags: Mitt Romney


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