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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

PPP’s Sample in Missouri Suddenly Becomes More Heavily GOP



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This morning, Public Policy Polling races to tell us that

Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

Boy, that’s surprising. Why, that might be the sort of thing that would persuade Akin he can still win this and that he should stay in the race. Let’s take a look at that sample . . .

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%

Republican………………………………………………. 39%

Independent/Other……………………………………… 32%

Wow, R+9? Well, Missouri has been trending red lately, so maybe that’s not that abnormal . . . Let’s take a look at PPP’s survey in this state in late May, when they found Obama leading Romney in Missouri by a point:

Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%

Republican………………………………………………. 33%

Independent/Other………………………………………. 33%

Wait, the sample went from D+2 to R+9? Gee, does anyone think that a heavily Republican sample might be why Akin isn’t trailing yet?

Anyone suspect that the Democratic polling firm might be trying to get the result they want, to ensure Akin stays in, so that he can get pummeled in November?

Thanks to Number-Cruncher for catching this.


Tags: Claire McCaskill , Polling , PPP , Todd Akin


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