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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Estimate: Obama Leads NC Early Vote By 1.2 Percent



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Jeff Dobbs takes a look at the numbers for early voting in North Carolina, takes some guesses as to how each group of voters – Democrats, Republicans, and “Other” – have voted so far:

Rasmussen’s latest poll in North Carolina asked responders who they intended to vote for – and asked them which party they belonged to. His results show the following:

Republicans Romney: 94% | Obama: 4% | Other: 2%

Democrats Romney: 17% | Obama: 82% | Other: 1%

Other Romney: 59% | Obama: 36% | Other: 5%

Weighting the votes by how each category is likely to vote using Rasmussen’s survey, the state of the race at this point in 2012 looks like this:

Estimated Vote Totals: Romney: 479,899 | 48.4%

Obama: 491,500 | 49.6%

Using this methodology, in 2012 Obama holds a 1.2% lead, or 11,600 votes, over Romney after one week of early voting in North Carolina.

With an 18.9 point lead at this point in 2008, Obama ultimately won 50.2% to 49.8%.

With an estimated 143,509 vote lead in 2008, Obama ultimately won by a 14,177 vote margin.

Obama is now leading by 1.2 points and 11,600 votes.

Remember, “If votes cast on Election Day decided the 2008 election, McCain would have won in Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa.”

I think the early vote may be significantly larger this year in communities where voters experienced long lines and long waits on Election Day 2008; folks may want to avoid the crowds this time around.


Tags: Barack Obama , Mitt Romney , North Carolina


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