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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Stage Is Set for a Scott Brown Comeback — If He Wants One



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Boston’s NPR:

WBUR poll of 500 registered voters finds U.S. Sen. Scott Brown is in a strong position should there be a special election to fill U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s seat.

MassINC pollster Steve Koczela looked at how well Brown would fare against four current or former Democratic members of Congress.

“We matched him up theoretically against (U.S. Reps.) Ed Markey, Mike Capuano, Steve Lynch and (former U.S. Rep.) Marty Meehan, and in each one of those cases, he led by between 17 and 19 points,” Koczela said.

Dang.

Chances are that some of that is the advantage of statewide name recognition against the name recognition limited to one congressional district, and in a hard-fought special Senate election, Brown would find it tough to match those numbers. But the four potential opponents polled, and most of the other non–Ben Affleck names, mentioned are more or less cookie-cutter, standard-issue, middle-aged or older white career Massachusetts Democratic pols.

Sarah Rumpf, a Florida-based GOP consultant who worked with Massachusetts GOP congressional candidate Sean Bielat last cycle, writes:

I have heard some scattered rumors of other candidates considering throwing their hats in the ring, but nothing serious or very credible. Brown’s near-universal name recognition and fundraising prowess not only make him a formidable primary opponent, but also help reassure Republican primary voters still smarting from November’s losses (the Democrats pretty much ran the table in the state, now holding both Senate seats, all Congressional seats, and a large majority in both houses of the Legislature) that he is likely the party’s most viable candidate for this seat.

She points out that besides the advantage of running in a high turnout presidential year, winning candidate Elizabeth “Warren was able to successfully weaken Brown’s numbers with women voters, even though he is moderate on many of those issues, including being pro-choice. A male candidate — and almost all of the names being discussed as potential candidates for the Democratic nomination are men — would not be able to duplicate Warren’s attacks as easily.”


Tags: Scott Brown


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