A Not-So-Revealing Poll in Colorado

by Jim Geraghty

Quinnipiac polled registered voters in Colorado and found that 54 percent oppose the recall elections against the two state legislators who voted for the state’s new gun-control law — but also found that 53 percent think the state’s new gun-control laws go “too far.”

The problem is that all of these results are from a statewide sample, and the recall elections will be decided by voters in the two state-senate districts. Quinnipiac didn’t break down its statewide sample by region, so there’s no way to tell how many of the respondents live in the two districts.

(Couldn’t they have asked respondents, “Do you live in one of the state-senate districts that will have a recall election on September 10?”) Polling for special elections is particularly tricky, since the turnout is different — usually significantly lower — than the turnout in a regular November election.

Coloradans are about evenly split on the statewide ban on the sale of high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 15 bullets — 49 percent supporting, 48 percent opposing. Only 37 percent say the new law will make the state safer; 40 percent say the new laws could have reduced the number of people killed in those shootings, while 56 percent say the new laws wouldn’t have made a difference.