The 2014 House Retirement Scorecard: Better Districts for GOP

by Jim Geraghty

Would you rather have fewer members of your party retiring, or more members of the other party retiring in swing districts?

At this point, eight House Democrats and 17 House Republicans are retiring at the end of their 2014 terms or aiming to win higher office. Out of those eight Democrats, two are in heavily Republican districts and two are in what most would consider swing or near-swing districts. Of the 17 House Republicans retiring, none of the open-seat races are in districts that favor Democrats, but four are in what most would consider swing districts.

Democrats:

Hawaii’s 1st congressional district: Incumbent Colleen Hanabusa is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+18.

Iowa’s 1st congressional district: Incumbent Bruce Braley is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+5.

Maine’s 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Mike Michaud is running for governor of Maine. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+2.

Michigan’s 14th congressional district: Incumbent Gary Peters is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+29.

New York’s 4th congressional district: Incumbent Carolyn McCarthy is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+3.

North Carolina’s 7th congressional district: Incumbent Mike McIntyre is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+12.

Pennsylvania’s 13th congressional district: Incumbent Allyson Schwartz is running for governor of Pennsylvania. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+13.

Utah’s 4th congressional district: Incumbent Jim Matheson is retiring and says he may someday run for governor or Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+16.

While nothing is guaranteed, the North Carolina and Utah seats look like easy lay-ups for the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Maine and New York seats could be won under the right circumstances.

Republicans:

Alabama’s 6th congressional district: Incumbent Spencer Bachus is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+28.

Arkansas’s 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Tim Griffin is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+8.

Arkansas’s 4th congressional district: Incumbent Tom Cotton is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+15.

California’s 45th congressional district: Incumbent John Campbell III is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+7.

Georgia’s 1st congressional district: Incumbent Jack Kingston is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+9.

Georgia’s 10th congressional district: Incumbent Paul Broun is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+14.

Georgia’s 11th congressional district: Incumbent Phil Gingrey is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+19.

Iowa’s 3rd congressional district: Incumbent Tom Latham is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: Even.

Louisiana’s 6th congressional district: Incumbent Bill Cassidy is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+21.

Minnesota’s 6th congressional district: Incumbent Michele Bachmann is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+10.

Montana’s at-large congressional district: Incumbent Steve Daines is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+7.

New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district: Incumbent Jon Runyan is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+1.

North Carolina’s 6th congressional district: Incumbent Howard Coble is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+10.

Pennsylvania’s 6th congressional district: Incumbent Jim Gerlach is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2.

Texas’s 36th congressional district: Incumbent Steve Stockman is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+25.

Virginia’s 10th congressional district: Incumbent Frank Wolf is retiring. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2.

West Virginia’s 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito is running for the U.S. Senate. District’s score in the Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+11.

Undoubtedly, Democrats will feel good about their chances of winning the open-seat races in Iowa, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, but at this point, none of those seats look like “easy lay-ups,” like Utah’s 4th district or North Carolina’s 7th district.