The election-watchers over at the liberal blog Daily Kos take a look at the 71 U.S. House of Representatives races they deem most likely to be competitive in 2014. Their conclusion isn’t too different from my assessment last week that the open-seat races are occurring in districts friendlier to the GOP.
They rate two GOP-held seats as “lean Democrat”: California’s 31st district, currently represented by Gary Miller, and the open-seat race in Florida’s 13th district, where longtime congressman Bill Young passed away recently.
They also rate two GOP-held seats as “toss up”: Colorado’s 6th district, currently represented by Mike Coffman, and the open-seat race in Iowa’s 3rd district, where Representative Tom Latham is retiring. Eight Democrat-held seats are rated as toss-ups.
Nine GOP-held seats are rated “lean Republican,” and 21 GOP-held seats are rated “likely Republican.”
They rate two seats currently held by Democrats as “safe Republican”; the retirements of Mike McIntyre in North Carolina’s 7th district and Jim Matheson in Utah’s 4th district effectively ended Democrats’ hopes in those heavily GOP-leaning districts.
In short, barring some dramatic change in the nation’s mood, the makeup of the House in January 2015 probably won’t look all that different than it does today, with Republicans holding 233 seats and Democrats holding 200. (Two seats are currently vacant.)