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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

What to Watch For in Nebraska and West Virginia Tomorrow



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Also from today’s Morning Jolt, which you would have by now if you were a subscriber:

GOP Primary Voters Feeling Sasse-y in Nebraska

Nebraska and West Virginia hold their primaries tomorrow.

The title fight in GOP circles is the fight in Nebraska’s GOP Senate primary, with not a heck of lot of polling so far. For what it’s worth, here is the most recent poll, one from a reliable pollster but contracted by an organization with a dog in the fight:

The Magellan Strategies poll of 525 likely Republican voters was conducted May 8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted one day after Bruning received endorsements from Gov. Dave Heineman and Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert. The results were posted online by the Legacy Foundation Action Fund, a group supporting Sasse.

In the Senate race, Sasse received the support of 38 percent of respondents, well ahead of banker Sid Dinsdale’s 24 percent. One-time front-runner Shane Osborn, a former Nebraska state treasurer, had 20 percent. Attorney Bart McLeay brought up the rear with 6 percent.

The undercard fight is the battle for the GOP nomination for governor; the crowded field includes state attorney general Jon C. Bruning, state senator Tom Carlson, Auditor of Public Accounts Mike Foley, state senator Beau McCoy, former Ameritrade COO J. Peter “Pete” Ricketts, and lawyer Bryan Slone.

From that May 8 poll:

In the governor’s race, Ricketts received the support of 25 percent of survey respondents, while Bruning received 24 percent — well within the margin of error. State Auditor Mike Foley, meanwhile, trailed with 18 percent and State Sen. Beau McCoy won the backing of 16 percent. Bryan Slone and Tom Carlson rounded out the pack, with both earning 5 percent.

West Virginia’s Senate primaries won’t be as exciting:

The outcome in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, (D., W.Va.) — a showdown between Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito and Democrat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant — is all but certain. And on the state level, among the six Northern Panhandle delegate districts, only two —the 3rd and 4th — feature contested primaries.

In fact, there’s some argument that the general election won’t be all that exciting, either. Stu Rothenberg of Roll Call concludes, “I don’t currently see a path for West Virginia Democrat Natalie Tennant.”


Tags: Nebraska , Ben Sasse , Sid Dinsdale , Shane Osborn , West Virginiia


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