Another Projection of a GOP Senate Majority in the Midterms

by Jim Geraghty

The latest midterm election projection from The Monkey Cage over at the Washington Post will surely cheer Republicans, predicting the GOP will win control of the Senate.

They predict Republicans win currently Democrat-held seats in Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and Iowa. Republicans keep their seats in Kentucky and Georgia; Democrats hold onto seats in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon.

However, the certainty of the projection seems a little… odd. They contend there’s a 98 percent chance that embattled incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan wins in North Carolina… and they also project Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell enjoys equally high odds of victory. Neither incumbent is likely to be so confident; polls show a close race in North Carolina and a small lead for McConnell in Kentucky

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Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.