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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Tomorrow, One District in Florida Chooses Its Congressman



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One of my readers in West Palm Beach gives his take on tomorrow’s special House election:

I haven’t seen any polling on FL-19, so I have no idea how things are currently going.  And it didn’t thrill me that I got a robo-call (on my cell phone!) a few days ago from the third party “conservative” who may end up handing a close race to the Democrat.  But I’m cautiously optimistic.  At the very least, I think Ed Lynch is going to do a lot better than any Republican should in a district with a Cook PVI of D+15 and a better-than 2 to 1 Democratic registration advantage.  Obama and Kerry each carried the district by over 30 points, with about 66% of the vote.  But there is a lot of anger over Obamacare among traditionally Democratic voters, immigration is not working for the Dems, and despite his squirming, Ted Deutch is being tied securely to the Obama/Clinton Second Front against Israel.  From my worms-eye view of one corner of the district (which looks like an ink blot test and runs from the rural center of the state to a north-south strip that runs just inland from the coast, where I live) it seems that Republicans, Tea Party types, Indies and disaffected Dems are motivated, while rubber-stamp Dems are complacent, many seem barely aware that there’s an election tomorrow.  Best of all, the weather is supposed to be bad. According to local radar, we should be seeing thunderstorms around the time the polls open, again at midday, and more in the early evening, shortly before the polls close.  If all of this depresses the unmotivated voter, it should cut for Lynch.  I plan to be at my polling place before it opens at 7 AM, come rain or shine. 

I’m hoping that the weatherman is right for a change. 

As I mentioned on Twitter, I’ve often thought Election Day should be held the day after taxes are due. This year, this district will choose its congressman two days before.

Obviously, the challenge before Republican Ed Lynch is substantial, even if some of these factors break his way. If you know someone in this district, give them a nudge.


Tags: Barack Obama , Horserace , Joe Biden , John McCain , Mitt Romney , Something Lighter , Tommy Thompson


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