The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

In New Jersey, Turnout Higher In GOP and Swing Districts Than In Democrats


I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts.

A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one, but it’s not that far from it.

Now, this should NOT be interpreted as ipso facto evidence that Chris Christie is going to win. Democratic districts may have more voters show up later in the day. This isn’t an exit poll, and we have no idea how the folks in any of these districts are voting; we just know that they’re showing up and voting.

But, as of this morning, turnout was higher Republican areas of the state than in Democratic ones, and that has to make Chris Christie and his supporters feel like they’re doing their jobs well…

UPDATE: I have a bit more detail now. Again, this is based strictly on the morning turnout, and there’s the afternoon and evening turnout could look completely different.

The two heaviest turnout counties are Hunterdon, which McCain carried by 13.3 percent over Barack Obama, and Morris County, which McCain carried by 8.1 percent.

The phenomenon is not uniform; Union Country’s turnout is described as above Ocean’s, and Obama carried Union by 27 percent; Ocean County’s turnout is described as “good,” and McCain carried that county by 18 percent.

Hudson County and Essex County were described as “light.” Hudson County is heavily Democratic, with Obama carrying it by 46 percent last year; he carried Essex County with 75 percent of the vote.

Salem County’s turnout is described as “unbelievably sleepy”; Obama carried that county by 4 percent.

Tags: Barack Obama , Bill Richardson , Chris Dodd , Hillary Clinton , Horserace , Joe Biden , John Edwards , John McCain , Mike Huckabee , Mitt Romney , Newt Gingrich , Rudy Giuliani , Sarah Palin , Something Lighter , Tommy Thompson


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