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The Campaign Spot

Election-driven news and views . . . by Jim Geraghty.

Hey, This Race Might Be Winnable



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A lot of the state polls look pretty bad for McCain lately, but there’s been an interesting shift in the tracking polls.

  • Rasmussen’s Presidential Tracking poll now shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent. At one point, Obama was up by 8.
  • Gallup’s national tracking poll of likely voters has Obama leading McCain by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
  • AP/Yahoo shows Obama leading McCain by two points, 44%-42%
  • The Reuters/C-Span/Zogby national tracking survey shows Obama leading McCain by five points, 49%-44%.
  • The GW/Battleground tracking poll has Obama leading McCain by four points, 49%-45%.

The other thing is, in most of these, if there’s been movement, Obama’s been pretty consistent – right around, or just under, 50 percent. McCain’s gains have come from undecideds.

It has been argued that this election is a referendum on Obama, and I largely concur. The endless magazine covers, the ubiquitous commercials, the posters, the stadium rally, his own channel on some cable systems, the postponement of the World Series for his half-hour national address… If you see him as a presidential and ready for the job, you’re for him; if you don’t, you don’t and you vote for the other guy.

(Interesting that McCain referred to Obama during one debate as “that one” since to a lot of voters, McCain is “the other one.”)

Obviously, I’d rather be up by four or five than down by four or five. But I’m not sure the instant demonization of Joe the Plumber helps Obama with all of those waverers in Ohio and Pennsylvania.


Tags: Barack Obama , Bill Richardson , Chris Dodd , Fred Thompson , Hillary Clinton , Horserace , Joe Biden , John Edwards , John McCain , Mike Huckabee , Mitt Romney , Newt Gingrich , Rudy Giuliani , Sarah Palin , Something Lighter , Tommy Thompson


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