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September 16, 2003, 9:00 a.m.
The Race Goes On
Don’t stop thinking about October 7.

By Sheri Annis

ll bets are off now that a federal appeals court has stuck its nose into the soap opera known as the California recall.



  
Just as the wild election was heading for a dramatic Oct. 7 finish, the judges pulled the plug, at least for now. I'm not too surprised that it was the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, the most liberal in the country — and, not insignificantly, the most frequently reversed.

After all, given the court's fear of sweeping disenfranchisement if nearly half the state uses punchcard ballots, that is precisely the system under which Gray Davis was reelected last November, along with a Democratic sweep of statewide offices. Now, suddenly, they're no good? The punchcards are to be replaced by the beginning of 2004, but past California elections have proceeded without cries of excluded voters or stolen elections.

Liberals are obviously pleased at yesterday's decision by the Democratic judges; the ACLU's Mark Rosenbaum called it a "masterpiece."

Court ruling or not, the recall marches on. Voters have already mailed in an estimated 300,000 absentee ballots, with more coming in daily. All the more reason why the candidates must keep campaigning as if Oct. 7 is still the target date.

But unless the U.S. Supreme Court, the appeal venue of choice for the recall proponents, once again wades into the arena of (potentially) hanging chads and overturns the ruling, the recall season could be stretched out until next March. That might be appreciated by northeast-corridor reporters who will be able to add a few more trips to the Left Coast to their expense reports, but it would also change the political landscape in a big way.

Here's a scorecard:
Gray Davis. He's acting Clintonian — spending a couple of days with Bill must have rubbed off on him — by trying to act gubernatorial and insisting he'll keep on doing his job rather than worrying about losing it. Davis, who was hanging on by a thread, may have been thrown a lifeline here. One, he can hope that the widespread public anger at the lousy job he's doing will fade over the next six months. Two, if the recall is held on the same day as California's presidential primary next March, a wave of Democrats who might otherwise have stayed home will show up to vote for Howard Dean and other liberal candidates. On the other hand, most people can't stand the governor, and that's not about to change.

Cruz Bustamante. He's not likely to wear well over six months. In just a month, his negative ratings have soared from 29 to 50 percent in the latest L.A. Times poll. The outrage of him taking $3 million from the Indian tribes he helped win casinos is starting to sink in. (The Indian tribes are major players, boasting the most lavish and decadent hospitality suites at the Republican and Democratic state conventions.) In a quickie election, the low-charisma Bustamante was a safe haven for those who wanted to dump Davis but keep the governor's mansion in Democratic hands. But at this rate Cruz could be cruising to a 100 percent negative rating.

Arnold Schwarzenegger. A quick election would help him because of the giant publicity wave that is propelling his candidacy. The looming deadline also boosted the pressure on his chief Republican rival, Tom McClintock, to bow out rather than potentially hand the election to Bustamante. A six-month extension would give reporters more time to dig into Arnold's bodybuilding days and drum up new controversies. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger can keep on raising money and keep on doing celebrity interviews (like yesterday's warm-and-fuzzy appearance with Maria on Oprah). But over six months, he'll also have to divulge more specifics to keep the press at bay.

Tom McClintock. Reporters may get tired of asking him month after month when he'll drop out. But with a March date, the state senator would have to simultaneously run for reelection and governor, as he's told the Sacramento Bee he plans to do. The conservative stalwart, who's raised little money, would gain more time to get his message out and broaden his base. But if his poll numbers don't rise any higher, it will become harder for him to justify why he's denying Schwarzenegger a clear shot at ousting the Davis-Bustamante administration.

Mary Carey. A clear winner, with six more months to promote her porn career.

Of course, the marathon could turn back into a sprint for Oct. 7 any moment now — in which case the candidates will be huffing and puffing harder than ever.

Sheri Annis, a Washington, D.C. media consultant, was press secretary for Schwarzenegger's Proposition 49 campaign in 2002.

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William F. Buckley Jr.'s literary autobiography

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