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September
16, 2003, 9:00 a.m.
The Race Goes On
Dont stop
thinking about October 7.
By Sheri Annis
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ll
bets are off now that a federal appeals court has stuck its nose into
the soap opera known as the California recall.
Just as the wild
election was heading for a dramatic Oct. 7 finish, the judges pulled the
plug, at least for now. I'm not too surprised that it was the Ninth Circuit
Court of Appeals, the most liberal in the country and, not insignificantly,
the most frequently reversed.
After all, given
the court's fear of sweeping disenfranchisement if nearly half the state
uses punchcard ballots, that is precisely the system under which Gray
Davis was reelected last November, along with a Democratic sweep of statewide
offices. Now, suddenly, they're no good? The punchcards are to be replaced
by the beginning of 2004, but past California elections have proceeded
without cries of excluded voters or stolen elections.
Liberals are obviously
pleased at yesterday's decision by the Democratic judges; the ACLU's Mark
Rosenbaum called it a "masterpiece."
Court ruling or not,
the recall marches on. Voters have already mailed in an estimated 300,000
absentee ballots, with more coming in daily. All the more reason why the
candidates must keep campaigning as if Oct. 7 is still the target date.
But unless the U.S.
Supreme Court, the appeal venue of choice for the recall proponents, once
again wades into the arena of (potentially) hanging chads and overturns
the ruling, the recall season could be stretched out until next March.
That might be appreciated by northeast-corridor reporters who will be
able to add a few more trips to the Left Coast to their expense reports,
but it would also change the political landscape in a big way.
Here's a scorecard:
Gray
Davis. He's acting Clintonian spending a couple of days with
Bill must have rubbed off on him by trying to act gubernatorial
and insisting he'll keep on doing his job rather than worrying about losing
it. Davis, who was hanging on by a thread, may have been thrown a lifeline
here. One, he can hope that the widespread public anger at the lousy job
he's doing will fade over the next six months. Two, if the recall is held
on the same day as California's presidential primary next March, a wave
of Democrats who might otherwise have stayed home will show up to vote
for Howard Dean and other liberal candidates. On the other hand, most
people can't stand the governor, and that's not about to change.
Cruz Bustamante. He's not likely to wear well over six months.
In just a month, his negative ratings have soared from 29 to 50 percent
in the latest L.A. Times poll. The outrage of him taking $3 million
from the Indian tribes he helped win casinos is starting to sink in. (The
Indian tribes are major players, boasting the most lavish and decadent
hospitality suites at the Republican and Democratic state conventions.)
In a quickie election, the low-charisma Bustamante was a safe haven for
those who wanted to dump Davis but keep the governor's mansion in Democratic
hands. But at this rate Cruz could be cruising to a 100 percent negative
rating.
Arnold Schwarzenegger. A quick election would help him because
of the giant publicity wave that is propelling his candidacy. The looming
deadline also boosted the pressure on his chief Republican rival, Tom
McClintock, to bow out rather than potentially hand the election to Bustamante.
A six-month extension would give reporters more time to dig into Arnold's
bodybuilding days and drum up new controversies. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger
can keep on raising money and keep on doing celebrity interviews (like
yesterday's warm-and-fuzzy appearance with Maria on Oprah). But over six
months, he'll also have to divulge more specifics to keep the press at
bay.
Tom McClintock. Reporters may get tired of asking him month after
month when he'll drop out. But with a March date, the state senator would
have to simultaneously run for reelection and governor, as he's told the
Sacramento Bee he plans to do. The conservative stalwart, who's
raised little money, would gain more time to get his message out and broaden
his base. But if his poll numbers don't rise any higher, it will become
harder for him to justify why he's denying Schwarzenegger a clear shot
at ousting the Davis-Bustamante administration.
Mary Carey. A clear winner, with six more months to promote her
porn career.
Of course, the marathon
could turn back into a sprint for Oct. 7 any moment now in which
case the candidates will be huffing and puffing harder than ever.
Sheri
Annis, a Washington, D.C. media consultant, was press secretary for
Schwarzenegger's Proposition 49 campaign in 2002.
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