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 his
is highly influenced by my having spent Tuesday night amid mostly
jubilant Republicans at the state GOP's shindig in Los Angeles.
But I'm almost convinced that political novice William E. Simon
Jr. has a chance to upset Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in November.
Certainly Simon's
victory over former L.A. mayor Richard Riordan and current secretary
of state (and party veteran) Bill Jones was remarkable. And while
he benefited — as Arnold Steinberg has noted — from mistakes
and events beyond his control, Simon also made the most of his opportunities
and avoided serious mistakes himself.
It's worth
recalling just how completely most political observers believed
that Dick Riordan had a lock on the nomination only a few weeks
ago.
Four years
ago, the Republicans lost with former attorney general and social
conservative Dan Lungren. They also conceded control of the state
legislature for the next decade, with a reapportionment deal that
left almost all seats safe for one party or the other, and a solid
majority of them Democratic. The California GOP was desperate for
a fighting chance at winning something. Democrat Gov. Gray Davis
— who has a level of charisma befitting his name, and who fumbled
(and was widely perceived as fumbling) last year's electricity crisis
— seemed potentially vulnerable to the right candidate.
For a long
time, Dick Riordan seemed like that candidate. He had just finished
two terms as mayor with something of a reputation intact. He knew
how to operate in majority-liberal Los Angeles. He was widely perceived
as socially moderate and inclusive, though he had some conservative
credentials — as a supporter of the recall campaign against
former chief justice Rose Bird, and as the only major political
figure to back Prop. 227, the 1998 initiative that effectively ended
bilingual education in California public schools.
Riordan had
his own fortune and access to serious political money. Early on
conservatives like Reps. Dana Rohrabacher, Chris Cox, and David
Dreier endorsed him, essentially on the theory he could win, and
a governor who's right half the time is better than one who's always
wrong. The Bush White House never formally endorsed him, but a number
of White House operatives quietly made it known that Riordan was
"the Man" in the California GOP.
But Riordan
managed to alienate the conservative GOP base rather thoroughly.
He got the Nixonian maxim — run to the right during a primary
and veer to the "center" in a general — exactly backwards.
He made it a point to argue that the GOP would be a footnote if
it didn't become more inclusive and welcoming, and came close to
equating a pro-life position with a lack of compassion and sensitivity
(although he is a churchgoing Catholic who is apparently still personally
opposed to abortion).
Even so, as
recently as the last televised debate (Feb. 13) almost everybody
still believed Riordan would take the nomination. Bill Simon, son
of the former treasury secretary, was a businessman and philanthropist
who had fallen in love with California and moved here a dozen years
ago. He had a solid conservative platform and some money. When he
came by our newspaper's editorial board in mid-January, we pegged
him for a solid policy wonk who had no chance and who was probably
positioning himself for a run at the Senate. After the February
13 debate, we wrote, "[I]t's doubtful whether he broke out
of the box among primary voters."
If anyone seemed
positioned to take advantage of any Riordan stumbles, it was Secretary
of State Bill Jones — a Central Valley stalwart, with long
experience in the state legislature, who is the only Republican
elected to a statewide office. More a party loyalist than a movement
conservative, he was nevertheless on the right side of most issues
(though some faulted him for a late endorsement of Ariz. Sen. John
McCain during the 2000 primaries, and for having been former Gov.
Pete Wilson's legislative manager for the tax increase that was
enacted in the wake of the 1990 downturn).
Jones led the
attack on Riordan for having given money to an array of Democrats
over the years. Former Gov. George Deukmejian, long underappreciated
but now widely admired, endorsed Jones and attacked Riordan, even
saying he wouldn't vote for Riordan if he were the nominee. And
Gray Davis, one of the most remarkable political fundraisers of
our era, spent big bucks — about $8 million, eventually —
on TV ads attacking Riordan's inconsistency on issues ranging from
abortion to the death penalty.
But Bill Simon
had money: some his own, some donated. And possibly because of his
flirtation with McCain, Bill Jones didn't have enough for a serious
TV ad campaign. Simon introduced himself with "soft" ads
featuring former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, for whom he had worked
as a federal prosecutor in the late 1980s. He then moved to criticism
of Riordan for having said that Clinton and other Democrats were
worthy of admiration, explicitly positioning himself as "the
conservative Republican who won't raise your taxes" and whose
heroes are Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Rudolph Giuliani.
In the last
week, statewide polls showed Simon first pulling even with, then
overtaking Riordan. Though excited, Simon supporters were careful
not to claim a premature victory. Turnout at the primary was low
— 36 percent, the second-lowest in the state's history —
but the voters spoke, giving Simon 49.4 percent to Riordan's 31.4
percent and Jones's 17 percent. In a Public Policy Institute of
California poll taken in early January, Simon had been at only 4
percent — 37 percent behind Riordan.
With that as
background, here are some of my impressions of life among the Republicans
Tuesday night:
Even as the
results showed Simon widening his lead, the Riordan people remained
upbeat and enthusiastic. It wasn't quite fair to compare the Republican
scene with the occasional TV pictures of near-empty Democratic conclaves;
except for controller and insurance commissioner, there simply weren't
any real contests to stir passions. Still, the Republicans came
early, stayed late, and made lots of noise. The Simon people were
especially excited — even before the polls closed and results
started trickling in.
I talked with
Martin Anderson, former "domestic policy czar" in the
early Reagan years and now at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.
Anderson has made something of a project of restoring Reagan's image
as an intelligent, focused politician through the In
His Own Hand books and CDs. He has been on the Simon team
for about a year now and told me he saw some parallels between his
candidate and Reagan — especially in the almost uncanny way
Simon has begun to connect with voters through television. Furthermore,
"he beat the mayor of L.A., the secretary of state, and the
White House. Who's to say he can't take the next step?"
The Simon campaign
hadn't been only about the election; it included 18 policy task
forces (Martin's wife, Annaliese, heads the high-tech task force).
This gave Simon a solid base of knowledge from which to discuss
issues. And on all the important issues, Martin Anderson says, Simon
has taken policy positions virtually identical to those you would
expect from Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush.
It wasn't just
the positions, however, but a connection with voters. Simon almost
looks too young to run (he's 50), but that might be an advantage.
If he can seem a bit wonky, he also comes cross as a person who
means what he says. Anderson thinks people instinctively trust him.
Matt Fong,
the former California state treasurer who ran well but unsuccessfully
for Senate, told me that Simon connects especially well with women
and that women voters are turning out to be one of his strengths.
In the debates, his comments to the effect that "after all,
I have five sisters" sounded a little clunky. But maybe it
worked. Fong thinks he communicates a certain basic decency that
people can sense, even if they're not sure they agree with his policy
positions.
Dick Riordan's
concession speech was remarkably gracious and fairly enthusiastic.
He did have to get in some of his campaign lines about the need
for the GOP to become more inclusionary, to "welcome women
back," to reach out to minorities. But he stressed that the
GOP must unite and that "Bill Simon is the hope to bring glory
back to the Golden State."
(Simon and
Riordan attend the same church and have been friends — politics
aside — for years. In fact, Riordan urged Simon to run some
18 months ago, before he decided to jump into the race.)
Before the
acceptance speech, my experience with Simon consisted of a few TV
commercials and debates, and an editorial board meeting in which
half a dozen of us peppered him with questions. He was fairly impressive
in the small group, showing familiarity with California issues,
an essentially free-market approach to issues, and an ability to
move beyond canned statements during a discussion. But I had thought
Bill Jones actually did better during debates; Simon seemed stiff,
and he refused to beat up on Dick Riordan.
So his ease
during an acceptance speech that had to stir up both the troops
in the ballroom and voters watching on TV surprised me somewhat.
About a dozen Simon supporters told me later that he has been steadily
improving on the stump and they expect him to get better.
He also managed
to package the idea of a "California dream" to which many
Californians still cling in an essentially conservative, but broader
and more inclusive rhetoric. Ronald Reagan was able to do that too.
Simon's formulation wasn't bad:
The idea
that here in the Golden State, if you work hard and live by the
rules, your hopes and dreams can come true. You can climb as high
and go just as far as your God-given talents will take you. It
is the idea of freedom and boundless opportunity, guided by a
strong sense of community, service, kindness, and generosity of
spirit. This idea is our California dream.
Of course,
it's too early to tell if that kind of campaigning will resonate
beyond the Republican primary electorate. But we may be seeing the
emergence of a major political figure here.
It won't be
easy. Gray Davis has a war chest of about $30 million, and can raise
much more. The buzz is that he'll spend some right away, in an attempt
to define Bill Simon as an out-of-touch extremist, before Simon
can define himself to the broad electorate. On election night, Davis
described Simon as a "true-blue conservative think-tanker"
(perhaps one of the most accurate things he has said about an opponent)
and himself as a practical problem-solver. If the race is close,
it will probably get nasty.
But Gray Davis
— who spent his life cautiously climbing the political ladder,
and who has the mentality of a staffer — really did mishandle
the recent electricity crisis; and most Californians would agree.
Early in his term, I heard more complaints about his penchant for
micromanagement and control from Democratic staffers and legislators
in Sacramento than I did from Republicans. He is vulnerable and
he is not lovable.
Bill Simon
could be the man to take him.
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