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Allard is something of an unsung conservative hero in the Senate, where he has been a consistent vote for limited government, a strong defense, and social conservatism. A self-proclaimed "country boy" by background and a veterinarian by trade, he won in 1996 with a strong ground campaign emphasizing his down-home qualities — a stark contrast to the slick Denver lawyer and lobbyist Strickland.
At the beginning of the 2002 race, Allard led Strickland by double digits in most polls. Strickland has cut into that lead, pulling within striking distance of Allard since August. Most recent polls show Allard ahead by a few percentage points, though two Zogby polls have shown the race as a tie. Potentially still more ominous, Allard remains well below 50 percent. What happened, and what are the prospects? More than anything, Strickland has benefited from a barrage of outside spending from five liberal groups: the Sierra Club, League of Conservation Voters, AFL-CIO, NARAL, and a group that calls itself "Every Child Matters" and is funded by Rob Reiner (a.k.a. "Meathead"). To summarize this ad campaign: Allard hates women, children, and animals and loves corporate corruption, Fetal Alcohol Syndrome, and arsenic. No recent Colorado campaign has featured so thorough an attempt to criminalize the principles of federalism and limited government. Until this week, when the AMA, United Seniors Association, and Americans for Job Security entered the fray, no outside group had run ads for Allard. Overall, Allard campaign insiders — who express amazement that "we aren't down by ten points" — believe they have been outspent 2-1 since August. It is the overall onslaught, more than any particular issue, that seems to be fueling Strickland's drive. Strickland put considerable effort into trying to make corporate corruption work for him, without much success. Allard pointed to his vote for reforms and to Strickland's ties to Global Crossing; a recent poll showed Allard holding a 39-33 lead on who best could deal with corporate corruption. Betting on Colorado as a "pro-choice state," the Democrat has also tried to paint Allard as a pro-life extremist. However, Colorado's Governor Bill Owens (who appears to be cruising to a landslide reelection), both U.S. senators, and four of six current congressmen are all either strongly pro-life or genuine moderates who do not favor unrestricted abortion on demand. Strickland has made a concerted effort to move to the center, following a long tradition of Colorado Democrats, like Gary Hart and Tim Wirth, who won as moderates before going on to vote as liberals. During his two years of service as Bill Clinton's U.S. Attorney in Denver, Strickland tried to establish a "tough on crime" record, which recently paid dividends in a police-union endorsement. He has softened his anti-gun position, refrained from calling for a repeal of the Bush tax cuts, and has been a hawk on Iraq (though he recently let slip his view that America's "real enemy" was "hopelessness"). For his part, Allard has run a strong campaign but, like Republicans around the country, has been forced onto the strategic defensive on issues like corporate corruption, prescription drugs, Social Security, the environment, and education. One exception has been national security, where Allard has touted his support of missile defense and higher defense spending, as well as his experience on the Senate Armed Services Committee. He has, however, been forced to play largely on the Democrats' home field. Unlike six years ago, when both Denver dailies endorsed Allard, the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News split their endorsements this year. The Post, which ran a "profile" piece of Allard that was so slanted that many readers mistook it for an editorial, also came out for Strickland on their real editorial page, complaining that Allard voted with Republicans 98 percent of the time. The News stuck with Allard — applauding his workmanlike approach, his fiscal conservatism, and his record of working hard on local environmental issues — and questioned Strickland's professed moderation. Colorado is left with a two-week race for the 20 percent of voters who say they are still undecided. Strickland has going for him the rule of thumb that says that incumbents who are below 50 percent this late are in serious trouble, plus a belief that the undecideds will break his way. Democrats are clearly energized by a feeling of momentum. On the other hand, Allard has several advantages going into the home stretch. The Republican voter-registration edge of nearly 200,000 could prove decisive, especially if many of the undecided voters, disgusted by the nastiness of the Senate race, simply stay home. President Bush may make a last-minute visit to Colorado for Allard. The outside groups that have just begun running pro-Allard ads will spend around $1 million on them through election day. And — not least — a study done by a local columnist last spring showed that in 22 political rematches in Colorado history, the original winner won the rematch 21 times. — Andrew E. Busch is an associate professor of political science at the University of Denver. |
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in Colorado, Republican incumbent Wayne Allard is engaged in a very close
Senate race against Tom Strickland, a rematch of their hard-fought 1996
contest.
