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two photos on the front page of Election Day's New York Times
captured the essence of this year's New York City mayoral race.
One photo showed Democrat Mark Green with Bill Clinton. The other
featured Republican Mike Bloomberg with Rudy Giuliani.
In the wake
of September 11th, Giuliani trumps Clinton hands down. That fact
— and $50 million — seems to be what pushed Mike Bloomberg
past the finish line on his way to becoming New York's 108th mayor.
This was not
a great election year for the GOP, which lost both the Virginia
and New Jersey governor's races. The New York victory is the one
bit of good news for the party. But Bloomberg, with a history of
generous donations to Democratic politicians in the not-so-distant
past, is a fourth-quarter convert to the Republican party. It's
not even clear whether he voted for George W. Bush over Al Gore.
Nor is it likely
that Bloomberg spends his free time reading through back issues
of the Manhattan Institute's City Journal. One of his policy
advisers is lefty Barnard College professor Ester Fuchs, a former
Dinkins adviser and constant Guiliani critic.
So it's not
surprising that conservatives have been especially ambivalent about
this year's mayoral race. The New York Post even refused
to endorse a candidate.
Still, Bloomberg's
victory is a step in the right direction. In the same way that George
H. W. Bush's 1988 presidential victory was a vote for a third term
for Ronald Reagan, Bloomberg's win can be seen as a positive referendum
on the Giuliani years. Because of term limits, New Yorkers who were
unable to vote for Giuliani again could register their support for
the mayor's stewardship of the city and his handling of the terrorist
attack with a vote for Bloomberg.
Before Giuliani
endorsed him, Bloomberg was trailing by double digits, having run
an unimpressive campaign characterized only by his willingness to
spend millions and millions of dollars. Giuliani's endorsement shot
Bloomberg into a dead heat.
Even more encouraging
is the political implosion of Mark Green. In the long and sordid
history of New York politics, there has rarely been a candidate
so thoroughly disliked by people in both parties. Throughout 20
years of running for political office — mostly unsuccessfully
— the former Naderite comes off as a smug, self-righteous know-it-all.
Despite spending
eight years criticizing Giuliani, Green had the good sense to run
as a moderate this year, winning an important endorsement from Bill
Bratton, Giuliani's former police commissioner. After September
11th, he also was smart enough to realize, unlike his Democratic
primary opponent Fernando Ferrer, that raising taxes, increasing
spending, and giving out big contracts to city workers was fiscal
suicide.
Yet there was
always the gnawing feeling that a Green mayoralty would eventually
mean a return to the bad old pre-Giuliani days. His defeat is another
blow to the old-guard urban liberalism that Giuliani has been at
war with for eight years. It is increasingly clear that in a city
where Democrats outnumber Republicans 5 to 1, many voters no longer
equate strong leadership with liberal Democrats.
New York's
liberal coalition has been dying a slow death for 30 years. Not
only has it been attacked from the right, but this year many blacks
and Hispanics abandoned Green. They were still angry about his attacks
on Ferrer and Al Sharpton in the primary. Bloomberg won half of
the Hispanic vote, while many black New Yorkers simply sat on their
hands.
The continuing
disarray of New York's liberal Democrats means that Bloomberg has
the opportunity to strengthen Giuliani's center-right coalition.
He shouldn't do this by playing the old game of racial and ethnic
spoils or by cozying up to Al Sharpton, but by reminding New Yorkers
that a safer and more prosperous city benefits everyone.
Whether Bloomberg
can succeed is still up in the air. His campaign was full of vague
talk about having the business experience necessary to rebuild New
York (shades of Ross Perot), but lacked specifics.
His occasional
petulance on the campaign trail when veering off-script makes one
wonder if he is up for the intense scrutiny that comes with being
mayor. He enters office with less knowledge of city government than
any other mayor in recent memory.
But to his
credit Bloomberg endorsed most of Giuliani's policies, promising
to continue the fight against crime. He rejected the idea of raising
taxes and should be immune to the natural pressures to expand city
government. He is also not beholden to the city's unions, who overwhelmingly
supported Mark Green.
These next
few years will be some of the toughest the city has faced. Tens
of thousands of jobs have been lost and the city faces a $4 billion
budget deficit. It will take a Herculean effort to rebuild lower
Manhattan, lure businesses back to New York, and preserve the city's
fiscal health.
That is Bloomberg's
challenge. If he succeeds, then Republicans should embrace him as
one of their own.
If he fails
to provide adequate leadership during this crisis and the city begins
to revert to its old habits, then you can be sure that Rudy Giuliani
will be lurking in the background, ready for a return to City Hall
in four years.
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