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reacted with an outpouring of emotion to the carnage in America.
According to the Russian ORT TV, the flag on the Russian White House
has been lowered to half-mast. At noon, a moment of silence was
observed at Putin's cabinet meeting and around the country. By that
hour, the lawn of the U.S. embassy had been covered with flowers
placed there by sympathetic Russians. Muscovites, like the Israelis,
have gone to hospitals to donate blood for the victims. This is
an unprecedented expression of solidarity with the America the Russians
learned to resent.
President Vladimir
Putin is leading an effort to put Russia squarely in the antiterrorist
camp. Since the attack, Putin has talked to President Bush twice
on the phone, and reportedly ordered all intelligence information
on ties between bin Laden and the Taliban to be passed on to the
U.S.
But there is
also bureaucratic confusion, and some degree of an "I-told-you-so"
attitude. First, Putin and Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov declared
that Russia and NATO are prepared to act jointly with the U.S. against
international terrorism. But later Ivanov clarified that Russia
will not participate in retaliatory attacks, especially as long
as it is not clear against whom they will be directed. Ivanov ruled
out the use of the Russian and Central Asian bases by the NATO alliance.
His namesake,
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, was more circumspect. At the Nixon
Center dinner on Wednesday, he did not rule out bilateral operations
against the perpetrators. But he did insist that a new international
legal framework, including "conventions" against terrorism,
must be developed. That may take months, and will inevitably delay
the war on terrorism.
Russian leaders
have not missed this opportunity to promote their agendas —
for instance, justification of their policy in Chechnya and opposition
to missile defense. Russia is emphasizing the Taliban-Chechen connection
to score propaganda points. The Taliban regime is one of the very
few which have formally recognized the independence of Chechnya,
and bin Laden allegedly trained some Chechens in Afghanistan.
Last Thursday,
Russian General Prosecutor Vladimir Ustinov met with a delegation
of the European Assembly and touted "improvements" in
Chechnya. Ustinov claimed that Moscow has proof that Chechen fighters
undergo training in terrorist camps run and financed by Osama bin
Laden. This was before the rebels launched a massive attack in the
breakaway republic, and two Russian generals were shot out of the
sky in a helicopter.
Ministry of
Defense and security pundits have also suggested that the U.S. needs
no missile defense, since the threat is so low-tech — conveniently
forgetting that both terrorists and rogue states on the U.S. Department
of State terrorism watch list (such as Iran, Iraq, and Syria) are
developing weapons of mass destruction.
Nevertheless,
Russia's goodwill will come in handy as the U.S. develops its strategy.
Moscow holds most of the cards in strategically important Central
Asian republics located to the north of Afghanistan. Russia already
has its 201st Division — which is 11,000 strong — in the
area, and is guarding the Tajik-Afghan border. The anti-Taliban
Northern Alliance is Tajik-dominated and based south of the Tajikistan-Afghani
border; it is the logical place to develop a staging area for anti-Taliban
forces.
If the U.S.
operation bogs down in Pakistan, the imperative to open a second
front from the north will be overwhelming. Washington will need
to deal with the Kremlin, as well as with the governments of Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan, to ensure their cooperation.
Russia and
Uzbekistan, both supporters of the Northern Alliance, have good
intelligence networks among the anti-Taliban resistance. The main
setback is that the leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah
Masoud, was assassinated on September 10, a day before the New York
attack. (The best military commander of the Afghan war, he was nicknamed
the Lion of Panjir Valley.)
And according
to the Russian Novosti news agency, only ten days prior to the attack
on Masoud, the Taliban appointed Osama bin Laden the military commander
of their army. It is also significant to note that bin Laden then
nominated Juma Namangani, a leading Uzbek militant Islamic leader
(with hundreds of fighters in Tajikistan), as his deputy. Thus,
over the last couple of weeks, Islamist expansion into Central Asia
has become likely. Intelligence sources in Washington speculated
that the blow against Masoud might have been connected to these
plans.
But even with
Masoud dead, Washington may develop a pincer strategy against the
Taliban, working with Pakistan, Russia, India, and the Central Asian
states. There, Russia, India, and China can become U.S. partners
in the war against terrorism. The U.S. should offer antiterror cooperation
to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (the Shanghai Six), which
includes Russia, China, and four central Asian republics.
The paradigm
has shifted overnight. There are now gaping geopolitical chasms
where yesterday there were none. As Great Britain and France join
the battle against hatred, the United States and Russia must cooperate
in the spirit of World War II, when they were allies in the fight
against Nazism. With Communism finally gone, it will be easier than
before.
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