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 orries
about terrorist threats and concerns about the blossoming NATO-Russian
rapprochement united the ten countries aspiring to join NATO in
their support of the U.S.-led coalition.
As the heads
of state of the NATO candidates wrapped up their summit here in
the Bulgarian capital, the last thing they wanted was for the enlargement
process to be delayed or derailed. Thus, the main tune at the summit
was one of expressions of unanimity and pledges of cooperation.
In addition, during the opening reception, the Bulgarian presidential
guard band played the theme song from Love Story and other
golden oldies, giving the summit a somewhat Fellini-esque air.
After President
George W. Bush's message, it would seem they have little to worry
about. Bush's letter — read to the conference participants
by Robert A. Bradtke, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European
Affairs — reaffirmed the pledge he made in Warsaw in June,
assuring the participants that Russia has no veto over NATO enlargement.
In the message
to the summit, Bush said:
The United
States shares the commitment of participants in this summit to
protecting our common values against those who seek to sow fear
through acts of terror…
Those who
carried out this attack want to impose a rigid and intolerant
vision on the world… You, as much as anyone in the world,
have had first-hand experience with dictatorships imposed by people
who believe that they have the 'one truth' for all… We will
work together, we will make one another stronger, and we will
win…
The United
States supports NATO membership for all of Europe's new democracies,
from the Baltic to the Black Sea, who share our values and are
ready to contribute to security and stability in the Euro-Atlantic
area. The future of every European nation must be determined by
the progress of internal reform, not the interests of outside
powers.
Lord George
Robertson, the secretary-general, connected the dots for the NATO
candidates. Discussing the aftermath of the attack on the U.S.,
he said, "It has been a searing time of self-examination. A
tragedy of this scale rips away illusions. It forces us all to look
at hard truths, and demonstrate… where we stand — and
what we stand for.
"We must
trace the money and freeze it. We must deny them safe havens, anywhere
in the world. And, where necessary, we must use force to prevent
them from causing further loss of innocent life."
Two points
made by Lord Robertson raised eyebrows among summit participants,
however. First, he noted that instability and violence provide "the
most fertile ground possible for terrorism. By contrast, there is
no more hostile an environment for a terrorist than a stable, prosperous
country in a peaceful, secure region...
"Supporting
stable, multi-ethnic states is our best insurance against terrorism
emerging in the first place. Afghanistan is a safe haven for terrorists
precisely because it does not have a viable state structure. It
is a 'black hole.' That is why NATO is engaged in southeast Europe,
to prevent such 'black holes' from emerging on our doorstep."
While it is
self-evident that poverty, instability, and violence breed more
violence, the connection is far more complicated, summit participants
told NRO. After all, the U.S. is the most prosperous and pluralistic
country in the world, yet it nevertheless became a target for the
most heinous terrorist act in history.
And other relatively
prosperous and tolerant countries, not "black holes,"
are also under terrorist siege: Spain, Great Britain, France, and
Israel. Tamil terrorism destroyed relatively sound Sri Lanka. Historically,
in fact, totalitarian countries have seen the least terrorist action.
Robertson's
second controversial point was that "it is no use having heavy
metal armed forces which are structured for threats we no longer
face, and which cannot contribute to the kind of allied operations
the new threats will require."
If Lord Robertson
meant the obsolete Soviet arsenals prevalent in Eastern Europe,
he may be correct. However, the recent attack clearly demonstrated
the need for NATO's out-of-area power projection capabilities, which
are definitely both high-tech and "heavy metal."
The secretary-general
focused on the internal stability of prospective members as an important
component of overall alliance security. He emphasized "not
only effective police, border guards and judiciary systems, but
also ensuring good relations between different ethnic groups…
good relations with neighbors, and tackling such difficult issues
as corruption, money laundering, and organized crime."
And he stressed
that the effort to join NATO does not end in Prague in 2002, with
an invitation to join the alliance. Such an invitation "is
not like finishing a sprint. It is like earning a ticket to begin
a marathon."
But the two
most puzzling statements at the summit were offered by Ismail Cem,
the Turkish foreign minister, and Milan Kucan, the Slovenian president.
Cem asked that
the term "Islamic" not be used in relation to terrorism,
and suggested that Christian bankers might have paid for the terrorist
attack. Mr. Kucan called for putting bin Laden and his associates
"in front of a court," and for introduction of the global
governance by democratic states to fight the terrorist scourge.
Eyes rolled and tongues clicked.
More realistic
was Zbigniew Brzezinski, national-security adviser in the Carter
administration, who delivered the keynote address at the summit.
He offered the most comprehensive vision for NATO's future. Brzezinski
called for NATO members to create and embrace the new EU-Russian
economic space, and the NATO-Russian security space. He also called
for making the relationship with Russia a new strategic element
of NATO's security.
"Integration
into the Euro-Atlantic zone is the only geopolitical choice left
to Russia. It is surrounded by 290 million Muslims in the south,
and there will be 450 million Muslims in the immediate Russian periphery
by the year 2020. There [are] also 1.2 billion Chinese in Russia's
East, with the GDP currently six times higher than Russia's.
"If Russia
hasn't decided whether to make a rapprochement with NATO a tactical
move or a strategic choice, we need to convince it that it should
be a strategic choice," Brzezinski told NRO. "Russians
would be naïve to think that NATO will destroy itself in order
to let them in. But if Russia enters into strategic cooperation
with NATO during the coming year, President Putin and President
Kuchma of Ukraine should be invited to address the Prague summit.
Appearance of Putin in Prague will be the beginning of the road
to further cooperation and integration."
Brzezinski
also had a creative idea for the NATO enlargement for 2002: "NATO
should issue invitations to all seven candidates: the three Baltic
states, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Romania. This will be
a declaration of intention to admit, but the members should ratify
membership only to those who answer the NATO political and military
criteria.
"NATO
should stack ratification of membership for the rest of the candidates
based on their performance. Let the NATO Council select the sequence
of actual admission. Thus, there will be incentive for political
and military reform. But it is time to end the uncertainty. Enlargement
calls for real leadership, determination, and sense of historical
dimension," Brzezinski concluded.
Held in a quiet
south European capital, far away from the main theater of operations,
the summit was almost anti-climactic. The meeting was one of the
final chords in the coda of the old melody — that of the Cold
War against Communism. And it held only a hint of the new motif
— the martial song of the new war that's just beginning.
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