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Washington-Crawford summit is more important than any U.S.-Russian
summit since the historic conferences between President Ronald Reagan
and the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which led to the end of
the Cold War.
Bush and Putin
have a unique chance to unite in the alliance against Islamist terrorism.
They should go beyond a wartime alliance, which may be short-lived,
and emphasize strategic cooperation and the post-war integration
of Russia into the West.
The meeting
should also open the way for the U.S. to develop a national missile
defense, providing President George W. Bush with an opportunity
to implement Ronald Reagan's dream.
The model for
the new relationship should not be the short-lived World War II
alliance between Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Winston Churchill,
and the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Then, the USSR's Communist
ideology and Stalin's geopolitical ambitions terminated the alliance
with war's end. Instead, a more appropriate model should be the
Russian-British cooperation in the war against Napoleon in 1812-1814,
which resulted in the creation of the Holy Alliance and the Concert
of Europe, a five-power coalition of Great Britain, Russia, France,
Prussia, and Austria-Hungary. That alliance prevented a world war
for a century and resulted in unprecedented prosperity and economic
growth in Europe.
The terrorist
attacks on the United States on September 11 have changed the face
of the U.S.-Russian relations. Russia's position in support of America's
war effort demonstrates that the security differences between our
countries are smaller than many think. U.S.-Russian ties have survived
the ups and downs of the 1990s, and have transcended the Cold War,
leaving adversity in the past.
There are three
reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to unequivocally
support the U.S. in the war on terrorism. First, he believes that
radical Islamist forces, including the Taliban and al Qaeda, Osama
Bin Laden's terrorist network, present a clear and present danger
to Russia itself through their support of Chechen separatists and
other radical Islamist movements. Radical Muslim groups, such as
the Islamic Front of Uzbekistan (IMU), on the U.S. Department of
State terrorism list, threatened Russia's allies in Central Asia.
As Putin confided
in his speech at the Russian Embassy Tuesday, just prior to the
September 11th attack on the U.S., the Kremlin received the grim
news of the murder of Ahmed Shah Masoud, then-military leader of
the Northern Alliance. He was killed by bin Laden's assassins on
September 9th. "Something bad is coming," he thought,
"but we did not know where or when." He was right.
Secondly, the
Kremlin saw an opportunity to focus the world's attention on its
campaign against the Chechen separatists. Moscow has repeatedly
stated that the radical Islamic wing of the Chechen movement, headed
by Shamil Basayev and Hattab, is connected to Bin Laden's al Qaeda
organization. Indeed, radical Islamic networks in the U.S., Great
Britain, and the Middle East have cynically used Chechnya as a fundraising
tool, collecting millions of dollars for the jihad in Chechnya.
The Taliban was the only regime to recognize Chechnya's independence,
and Afghanistan had become a chief supply source for the heroin
distribution networks that partially financed the war in the Northern
Caucasus.
In joining
the antiterrorist coalition, Russia clearly expected Europe and
the U.S. to change their tone on Chechnya and stop criticizing Russia
for human-rights violations there. Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder
promised Putin exactly that during his trip to Germany. Tony Blair
followed suit. And the tone of international media started to change.
Thirdly, Putin
seized an unprecedented opportunity to affect a breakthrough in
Russia's relationship with the West. He believes that eventually
the West will emerge victorious and is anxious for Russia to be
on the winning side. When Putin weighed the resources of the U.S.,
Europe, and Russia arrayed against the terrorists and their supporters
— and counts on at least the tacit support of China, he concluded-correctly
— that in the long run, bin Laden and his allies are doomed.
This wartime alliance will provide Russia with an opportunity to
emerge as a US partner in several flashpoints around the world such
as the future arrangement in Afghanistan and the management of the
Arab-Israeli conflict. Russia may return to the forefront of the
world scene, Putin believes, but this time not as a U.S. opponent.
Putin's cultural
orientation was an important factor in his decision to turn West.
Personal acquaintances believe that, hailing from St. Petersburg,
the Westernized Russian second capital, and being a self-confessed
Germanophile, Putin prefers a West European orientation for Russia.
His aides and
political allies interviewed in Moscow a month ago, all agreed that
in the long run, Putin wants Russia to be the West's friend and
ally. According to Russia's national-security doctrine, which was
developed under Putin's supervision from 1999-2001, the main challenge
to the country lies in the highly unstable south. And beyond that,
China, with its dynamic economy and growing population of 1.2 billion,
is becoming a source of strategic concern despite the two treaties
signed between Moscow and Beijing earlier this year.
Finally, Putin
understands that only the West has the capacity to become Russia's
principal investor and trading partner, especially as a market for
Russia's energy resources. He stated that Russia will become a reliable
energy partner for the West regardless of what may happen to Middle
Eastern oil supplies.
A new era of
cooperation in the fight against radical Islamist terrorism, which
threatens both countries, has begun. The summit in Washington and
Crawford should focus on solidifying the new relationship with Russia
and building towards a future alliance. Disagreements over NATO
enlargement and missile defense must be managed and resolved.
In particular,
Russian ill-conceived military cooperation with the unstable regime
in Tehran must also be addressed. It is all about money for the
Russian powerful Minatom nuclear ministry and the rusting military-industrial
complex. But their sustenance cannot hurt the security of the US
and its allies. If Russia wants to be a part of an anti-terror coalition,
it cannot succor and arm the terrorist-harboring mullahs in Iran
with weapons of mass destruction.
Russia's strategic
realignment with the West may be a long and difficult process, but
if successful, it may distance Russia from China, Iran, and -importantly,
it may also disengage Russia from its radical Soviet-era Middle
Eastern clients such as Iraq, Syria and Libya.
The world will
be watching to see if the U.S. and Russia will agree to make it
safer for the years and decades to come. At stake is a fundamental
change in the geopolitical map of the 21st century, which may put
Russia firmly in the Western camp.
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