A Voice that Carries
Bush’s SOTU, in the East.

By Ariel Cohen, a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Heritage Foundation
February 6, 2002 8:45 a.m.

he president's State of the Union address has shaken the leaders in Baghdad, Teheran, and Pyongyang — and the generals in Russia and China. Not since President Reagan's "evil empire" speech have words rung so clear in the defense of freedom. And the dictators and mullahs did not like it the slightest.

Planting the U.S. flag there underscores the geostrategic importance of Afghanistan. From airbases in Bagram and Kandahar, the U.S. air force has control over Iranian skies and Central Asian steppes alike. This, and its new bases in Hanabad, Uzbekistan, and Manas, Kyrgyzstan, will enable the U.S. to make its warnings against countries that support terrorism more ominous.

"The American flag flies again over our embassy in Kabul. Terrorists who once occupied Afghanistan now occupy cells at Guantanamo Bay... America and Afghanistan are now allies against terror. We'll be partners in rebuilding the country," Bush said, welcoming Hamid Karzai. The interim prime minister sat in the place of honor, next to First Lady Laura Bush.

Iran, Iraq, and North Korea were the three "names named" by the president as future targets of the American war on terror. "Even seven thousand miles away, across oceans and continents, on mountaintops and in caves, you will not escape the justice of this nation."

Bush did not declare war on these states, but warned them: "My hope is that all nationals will heed our call, and eliminate the terrorist parasites who threaten their countries and our own." He heaped praise on Pakistani ruler Pervez Musharraf as a new American ally in the war on terror.

While the harshest words and the longest paragraph dealt with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the language on Iran was unambiguous: "Iran aggressively pursues... weapons [of mass destruction] and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom." Thus, in one succinct sentence the president addressed the Iranian nuclear program built around the Russian nuclear-power reactors at Bushehr, as well as Iran's robust ballistic-missile program. Many experts in the West suspect the ultimate goal of these projects is the acquiring of nuclear weapons.

Only recently, former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani threatened to use nukes to eradicate Israel. Iranian revolutionary guards and the Iranian-supported Hezbollah (Party of God) terrorist organization were involved in smuggling a shipload of weapons to Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority. Teheran expanded its theater of operations from the Bekaa Valley and Lebanon, where they project power through Hezbollah, to the suburbs of Tel-Aviv.

Condoleezza Rice, Bush's national-security adviser, echoed the president. On Wednesday, January 31, she addressed Iran in a speech to C-PAC, a conservative political umbrella organization. Dr. Rice said that "Iran's direct support of regional and global terrorism and its aggressive efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction belie any good intentions it displayed in the days after the world's worst terrorist attacks in history."

Teheran's reaction was quick and angry: Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi called Bush's speech "arrogant," saying it constituted "interference in Iran's internal affairs." Iran opened air ties with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, and increased its intervention in Afghanistan by starting broadcasts of its (television) Channel 3 from Tajikistan. According to diplomatic sources in Moscow, it is likely that Iran asked the Kremlin for permission to broadcast, and that Moscow agreed, knowing full well that such a step could draw Washington's ire. Russian generals now blame Russian president Vladimir Putin for "losing" Central Asia — a Russian backyard since its military conquest in the second half of the 19th century.

This illustrates Moscow's dilemma: It would like to have the benefits of a partnership with Washington, but is reluctant to abandon old allies in Teheran. The Kremlin wants to keep the proverbial caviar sandwich, and eat it, too.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, speaking to a friendly American audience at the U.S.-Russia business council dinner on January 31, said that Russia is interested in increasing its share of the global oil and gas market. Asked whether such an increase may take a bite out of the OPEC market share, Kasyanov smiled broadly and said, "We are interested in stability. Our country is rich in (natural) resources. We will be happy to share these resources with our friends."

No wonder commentators in Moscow and Western Europe would later point out that there was no official reaction to Bush's speech by the Putin administration. The Primakov-style, anti-American rhetoric of the past has not resurfaced, despite some of the recent disagreements in U.S.-Russian relations (including Moscow's unease about the U.S. bases in Central Asia).

Communist leaders in Beijing are also nervous. The U.S. bases in Central Asia will be used to contain some of China's territorial aspirations, which had been expressed in the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, or the Shanghai Six) in June 2001, and in the signing of the bilateral Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Russia in July 2001. But since the Afghan war, America has replaced China as the primary ally of the regimes in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian states, and Russia, too, has moved closer to the U.S.

The policies of the United States's new allies in Pakistan, Central Asia, and elsewhere will matter, however. Their rulers should not delude themselves that they are being given a blank check for domestic repression. The campaign against terrorism brings with it revival of Reagan-like rhetoric in defense of freedom.

Dr. Rice put it succinctly: "We are committed to a world of... greater democracy and greater human rights for all the world's people wherever they live. September 11 makes this commitment more important, not less. Because... you know that America stands for something real. It stands for rights that are inalienable and truths that are self-evident. It stands for compassion and hope."