June
5, 2003, 9:10 a.m.
Rise Up, Republicans!
The roadmap’s
collateral damage.
By Michael
Freund
early
20 years ago, while some of my teenage friends were out doing the kinds
of things our grandparents generation would have thought morally reprehensible,
I was busy doing something they might have considered even worse: handing
out flyers on behalf of a Republican presidential candidate.
I still remember
the sneers, and the occasional smiles, which my nascent political activity
evoked, as I stood there in New York's Grand Central Station, a yarmulke
perched on my head, trying to persuade rush-hour commuters to cast their
ballots for Ronald Reagan.
At the time, the very idea of a "young Jewish Republican" was
still something of an oddity, as most Jews continued to lean leftwards,
carrying on what for many was the equivalent of an inviolable family tradition,
namely, to vote Democratic come thick or thin.
In the intervening years, of course, that has started to change, as increasing
numbers of American Jews have begun to find a comfortable ideological home
in the GOP, a place where they can park their political identities while
still remaining true to their belief in the need for a safe and secure Israel.
But whatever gains that Republican have made among American Jews in recent
years are now in danger of being erased, and the person to blame for this
may be none other than George W. Bush himself.
Though Bush received just 19 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000, the aftermath
of 9/11 and the president's tough stand against Yasser Arafat enthralled
numerous American Jews, leading to what many perceived to be a potentially
galvanizing shift among the children of Abraham away from the Democrats
and towards the party of Lincoln.
Indeed, a May 8 Boston Globe article recently noted that "after
a year and a half of strong statements from President Bush about fighting
terrorism, along with his equally strong backing of Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon of Israel, some prominent analysts in both parties say they detect
a shift in the Jewish community" toward the Republicans.
But that shift is now at risk; consider this week's summit meeting in Aqaba
with President Bush, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, and Palestinian leader
Abu Mazen, where Bush pressed for implementation of the roadmap leading
to the establishment of a Palestinian state. By compelling Israel to make
concessions inimical to its security, Bush is gambling not only with the
future of the Land of Israel, but also with that of the Republican party
itself.
His pursuit of the roadmap, and his insistence that Israel turn over territory
to its enemies, has rightly evoked a growing sense of anger and frustration
among many pro-Israel American Jews and Christians.
After all, how can Bush possibly justify coercing Israel to appease Arab
terror at the same time that America is using force against it? And why
should the Palestinian regime be rewarded with statehood when the Taliban
and Saddam Hussein were punished with removal from power?
With next year's presidential-election campaign just around the corner,
Bush is playing with political fire, making it virtually impossible for
American Jews who support Israel to fully embrace him and his party.
Consider, for example, the letter sent to the White House last week by the
official Israeli branch of Republicans
Abroad, in which the group warned the president that pressing ahead
with the roadmap "will only serve to alienate American Jews and the
Christian right."
In the letter, the group's leaders noted that, "We are aware of increasing
numbers of American citizens, both here in Israel and in the United States,
who are now considering abandoning the Republican party as a result of your
administration's pursuit of the 'roadmap.'"
And if you think the Jewish vote doesn't matter any more in American politics,
then think again.
According to a 2001 study by the Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs, 55 to 60 percent of American Jews consistently
vote Democratic, 10 percent are loyal Republicans, while 30 to 35 percent
"can be lured by any party depending on its position." Sprinkled
among key battleground states in the campaign, that large group in the middle
"adds up to a swing vote representing up to 2 percent of the electorate
in states like Florida and Pennsylvania," says the study.
In either case, "a shift of that amount would have changed the result
in that state and, in all probability, single-handedly crowned the American
president. Put another way, the Jewish swing vote, mobilized behind a particular
candidate, would have given him the 2000 election."
Thus, the Jewish vote remains key, and is sure to play an important role
in next year's presidential-election campaign.
But the political risk to Bush may be even greater than just the loss of
Jewish votes, for his strong-arm tactics against Israel have also started
to arouse the ire of a key component of his core constituency, the Christian
right.
Just last Thursday, Bush received a political warning shot across his bow
from Christian televangelist Pat Robertson, the founder of the Christian
Coalition and a former Republican presidential candidate.
Speaking on the Christian Broadcasting Network, Robertson declared, "the
president of the United States is imperiling the nation of Israel. Not only
is he going against the clear mandate of the Bible, which is very important,
but he's also setting up a situation where Israel will no longer have secure
borders."
He even suggested that Bush's insistence on establishing a Palestinian state
"will be the beginning of the end of the state of Israel as we know
it."
Those are pretty strong words, the kind of words that could cost Bush and
his fellow Republicans a lot of votes next year if they aren't careful.
Sure, Bush's approval ratings may still be riding high after the recent
war in Iraq, but as the memory of the victory fades, and a lethargic economic
recovery sets in, if at all, those numbers will begin to slide, and the
president knows it.
Hence, as unlikely as it may seem right now, the outcome of next year's
presidential race is far from being a foregone conclusion.
It is therefore imperative that Republicans — Christian and Jew alike
— speak up now, loudly and unequivocally, against the roadmap.
Not just because it endangers the future of Israel, although that should
be reason enough, but also because it threatens to undermine the principled
stand which the party has taken in the global war on terror, in the process
needlessly driving away countless numbers of sympathetic Jewish and Christian
voters alike.
There is simply no good moral, political, or ideological reason for Bush
to be twisting Israel's arm, and he needs to understand that he will pay
a price at the ballot box if he does.
Republicans who care about Israel, then, need to rise up and send the president
a clear and unambiguous message: If you choose Palestine, then come November
2004, we will not hesitate to choose someone else in your stead.
—
Michael Freund served as deputy director of communications and policy
planning under former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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early
20 years ago, while some of my teenage friends were out doing the kinds
of things our grandparents generation would have thought morally reprehensible,
I was busy doing something they might have considered even worse: handing
out flyers on behalf of a Republican presidential candidate.
