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 ark
Twain is credited with the remark that history doesn't repeat itself
— but it rhymes. For Republicans in California, the rhyme of
history on Tuesday was so harmonious that they could be forgiven
for thinking history is about to repeat itself exactly.
Consider the
scene. California Republicans, coming off several dismal election
cycles, were looking for a strong candidate to field against a vulnerable
Democratic incumbent governor who had dealt weakly with several
crises in the state. So the party establishment turned to a moderate
big-city mayor, who polls showed would run the strongest race for
the statehouse. Meanwhile, an inexperienced conservative upstart
emerged as a credible candidate within the GOP, and the Democratic
governor got the idea into his head that he would rather run against
the "right-wing" upstart than the big-city Republican
mayor. So the Democratic governor played around behind enemy lines
in the Republican primary, attacking the mayor and boosting the
upstart to a win in the GOP primary.
But this story
isn't about this week. It's about 1966, when Gov. Pat Brown decided
to attack San Francisco's Republican mayor George Christopher before
the Republican primary (polls said Christopher would run the strongest
race for governor) because Brown decided he'd rather run against
Ronald Reagan instead. He got his wish.
Oops.
California
governor Gray Davis followed the Pat Brown script almost to the
letter in recent weeks, launching a barrage of attacks against former
Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan in hopes that businessman Bill
Simon, the supposedly weaker candidate, would overtake him. Just
like Pat Brown in 1966, Davis has got his wish. Beware what you
wish for, as the old saying goes. There is another old maxim that
Davis ignored, which is that you should never mess around in the
other party's primary.
Simon is showing
growing strength. While he is not Ronald Reagan on the stump (who
is?), he shares many of Reagan's appealing characteristics. Simon
has Reagan's same easy-going sincerity and a mild, unthreatening
demeanor. He is innately likeable on sight, which in a media-dependent
state like California will translate into charisma. He has done
his homework on California issues, and is ready for a serious run.
California's
electorate is lopsidedly Democratic these days — just as it
was in 1966. Reagan won with the votes of more than 2 million Democrats
who were disaffected with Gov. Pat Brown's handling of the Watts
Riots, the state budget, and student protests at state college campuses.
Gov. Davis has an even more abysmal record, first for fumbling the
state's electricity crisis, and then for turning a $12 billion state
surplus into a $17 billion deficit within one year. Many Democratic
voters are ready to defect to a credible alternative. The signs
of a potential mass defection are there. On Election Day the most
popular radio talk show in California's central valley fielded calls
for three hours from Democratic voters, almost every one of whom
said they would vote for anyone but Davis, and many of whom said
they just like Simon, probably for all of the reasons mentioned
above. Early polls show Simon running neck and neck with Davis.
Davis will
no doubt attack Simon's lack of government experience, but this
may not prove very effective. Reagan's substantive appeal in 1966
was that he was a citizen-politician, and the record of "experienced"
politicians then and now is not compelling. Simon can make the same
appeal. (It is worth noting that California voters this week also
convincingly rejected a ballot measure to relax term limits, a sign
that the dislike of the political class remains strongly rooted.)
There is one
big difference between 1966 and today, however: the politics of
abortion. Attacks against Simon, who is a pro-life Catholic, are
certain to come heavy and hard from California Democrats, who are
obsessed with abortion. But Davis is also putatively a Catholic,
and at some point it is going to be awkward for Davis to explain
why he dissents from his own church's teaching about the issue.
Any hint of anti-Catholicism in the criticism of Simon is likely
to backfire with Latino voters, a key Democratic voting block.
California
has a habit of reelecting its governors, even when they are in trouble.
Pat Brown is the exception that proves the rule; Reagan beat Brown
when Brown sought a third term. A first-term governor hasn't
lost in California for 60 years. And Davis has a huge campaign war
chest. But he has been around a long time in California politics,
and is looking mighty stale. California, which was once given up
as a lost cause by Republicans, now looks to be the hottest race
of the year.
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