Who’s Next?
So many choices.

t has been more than 100 days since September 11 and Washington's chattering class is rife with rumor about the next target in the war on terrorism.

The leading candidates are Iraq, Somalia, and Yemen. There are very good arguments why all three should be the next target.

Iraq after all has been developing nuclear and biological weapons in underground wells and hospitals, according to Adnan Ihsan Saeed al-Haideri, a defector interviewed by the New York Times. One of the 9/11 hijackers, Mohammed Atta, met with Iraqi intelligence officers in Prague in April. The third Army division moved their headquarters from the U.S. state of Georgia to Kuwait, the neighbor Iraq attacked in 1991. The State Department has increased its efforts at forming a group of exiled Iraqi military figures since November and Saddam Hussein was the only world leader not express regret, sympathy, or sorrow for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon after September 11.

In Somalia, U.S. warplanes earlier this month began over flights above the country and a military delegation last week met with Somali opposition groups. This week U.S. diplomat, Glen Warren met with the government officials in Mogadishu this week to discuss counterterror cooperation. Osama bin Laden himself brags that he helped planned the militia attacks against American Marines in 1993 in the country to insure the safe delivery of food and medical supplies to people suffering from famine.

In Yemen this past Tuesday, the army launched an unsuccessful raid on the Hassouna in Maareb district, where al Qaeda members were believed to be hiding out. Prior to that the U.S. offered the army training for its special forces when President Ali Abdullah Saleh met with top U.S. officials in November. Never mind that Secretary of State Colin Powell earlier this month assured almost all of his European counterparts in a tour of the continent that there were no plans as of yet to strike Iraq. And disregard the fact that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld flatly denied a report from high-ranking German official that Somalia was next on the terrorism list. And don't take seriously that President Saleh's raid Tuesday yielded no actual al Qaeda terrorists and cost him 12 of his fighting men.

The war is not going to stop at Afghanistan. But it's doubtful that there is a linear progression to this new war, as if one theater of action would preclude another. The problem with the next-target debate is that it assumes that the most advanced military in the world is incapable of focusing on two problems at once. (Remember all of those Quadrennial Defense Reviews to prepare the Pentagon for two simultaneous wars in different regions.)

Furthermore it assumes that the best way to rid a particular country of evil-doers is with tanks, fighter jets, and Marines as opposed say, well-trained native assassins on the CIA payroll or cooperative police departments under FBI supervision.

Finally the problem with news stories that purport to have inside information on the next target assumes that U.S. war planners would tell journalists where exactly terrorists shouldn't go as they are fleeing the caves of Tora Bora.

On this last point, the best commentary I've heard so far came from Robert McCloud, a drive-time disc jockey on Washington's only jazz station, WPFW. He interrupted his normal programming and gave this plea to any listeners who happened to be in the media: "If you are going to catch somebody, you don't tell them where you are going to be."

In the spirit of Mr. McCloud, I boldly declare that the next target in the war on terrorism is the Comoros Islands, nestled off the northern tip of Madagascar. On Wednesday a group of one hundred mercenaries stormed local police stations and gendarmes on the island of Moheli armed with guns and a French statement on Pentagon letterhead claiming they represented the United States. According to local press reports the statement read, "Colonel Azali Assoumani is guilty of collaborating with Osama bin Laden's group. Cooperate with the American soldiers and you will be thanked."

The government has denied any knowledge of special operations in Federal Islamic Republic of Comoros, but don't be fooled, Assoumani's government will be toppled in a matter of days.

In the meantime, if any terrorists are reading this, don't worry about seeking refuge in Baghdad, Mogadishu, or Sanaa. The United States has bigger fish to fry.