Mounting Tensions
The hot spot of the Holy Land.

emple Mount, the ruins of the ancient Jewish Temple, known to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary, is the holiest site of the Jews and the third holiest site of Islam. Unsurprisingly, Temple Mount has been a central issue in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Events at Temple Mount have sparked violence that has shaken the region and another explosion may be looming.

The Islamic religious authority, or Waqf, administers the Muslim holy sites on top of Temple Mount (the best known are the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.) Since its administration began, the Waqf has been building and renovating the sites on the Temple Mount without cooperating with the Israeli Antiquities Authority and in violation of Israeli law. The extent of this construction has increased since the 1993 establishment of the Palestinian Authority, and has reached a massive scale. For example, in 1996 6,000 tons of earth was removed from Temple Mount, creating a 75 by 200 foot hole. The unsupervised Waqf construction is destroying invaluable archaeological material and evidence that there was a Jewish temple on the site of Temple Mount.

But there is a more immediate possible consequence to the Waqf's unsupervised building. The southern wall has developed an ominous bulge and parts of it may be in danger of collapse. The Waqf's construction work, which has not been coordinated with Israel or examined by Israeli engineers, may have caused or exacerbated the structural weakness. Even a minor collapse of a small part of the wall could have enormous and violent political implications.

Rumors of Jewish plots against Muslim holy sites on Temple Mount have been used several times to incite violence. Arafat's use of Ariel Sharon's September 2000 visit to Temple Mount as an excuse to launch the present Intifada is only the most recent example.

In 1996 Israel opened the Hasmonean Tunnel under Temple Mount. Arafat claimed Israel was undermining the foundations of the mosques and launched a mini-Intifada. In a grim prequel to the present turmoil Israeli soldiers and Palestinian security forces fought throughout Gaza and the West Bank. Eighty-five Palestinians and 16 Israelis were killed. More than 1,200 Palestinians and 87 Israelis wounded. After the 1996 riots, Israel's presence on Temple Mount was virtually eliminated, allowing the Waqf to proceed in its construction unimpeded.

During Mandatory Palestine, in the 1920s and 30s, the Hitler-sympathizing Palestinian Mufti Haj Amin al-Husseini engineered bloody riots against the Jews based on rumors that the Jews had plans to seize Muslim holy sites.

Currently rumors of Jewish plots against Muslim holy sites are frequent in the Palestinian media. A typical example is a recent interview in the Palestinian Authority controlled magazine Al-Awda with Najeh Afana, president of the Al-Aqsa Heritage Committee. Afana claimed that the Israelis are digging tunnels under the Old City. He stated, "The digging will… cause [the Muslim holy sites] to collapse in anticipation of the greater cause… building a Jewish temple." Afana states that Al-Aqsa, the mosque on Temple Mount, is in great danger and that the Israelis could force their presence onto Temple Mount "under scientific or archaeological pretenses [and] then wait for or cause a collapse or structural damage…"

These claims are echoed by other Palestinian organizations and officials associated with Temple Mount. Sheikh Ikrimi Sabri, the Arafat appointed Mufti of Jerusalem, insists that there is no evidence that the Jewish Temple was ever present at Temple Mount and claims that Israel is interfering with Waqf efforts to repair and renovate Temple Mount in order to undermine it.

Against the backdrop of such statements, a physical collapse of even a small part of Temple Mount's walls could lead to intensified violence against Israel. This violence would not be limited to the Palestinian Authority. The Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa mosque are important symbols to Muslims throughout the Middle East, and the stories of Jewish plots against them are widespread through the region. Between the continuing Intifada, the American campaign in Afghanistan, and the continuing economic and social problems throughout the region, the Middle East is at a boiling point. A physical collapse, with footage of the damaged holy sites broadcast continuously by Al Jazeera and blamed on Israel could trigger a region-wide Arab-Israeli war and have a profound effect on the United States' standing in the region.

This combination of events is unlikely. There may not be a structural collapse at the Temple Mount. If there is, Arab governments, cautious of confronting Israel and afraid of unleashing passions in their own people, may be able to navigate the crisis and evade a war. But an incident at Temple Mount occurring and sparking a major war is a real possibility and the enduring lesson of September 11 is that nothing is unthinkable.