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technology has a well-founded place in this war. The initial sorties
of the American air strikes of October 7 sought to destroy Taliban
aircraft, air-defense capabilities (radars and missile launchers),
and command-and-control facilities. Defeating these targets will
enable American, British, and other coalition aircraft to more easily
fly over Afghanistan to attack other targets or support other military
operations. It is likely that we will deal with any handheld antiaircraft
missiles though a combination of tactics and technology.
Initial reports
make it clear that we also targeted terrorists training camps, some
former bin Laden homes, and a few "infrastructure" targets
— perhaps electrical power generators. If not already hit,
it is hard to imagine the few remaining telephone systems lasting
very long. Going after bridges is a toss-up, and will be driven
by individual considerations of battlefield plans.
The al Queda
training camps were not especially sophisticated and eventually
can be replaced, but the training system has been disrupted directly
and indirectly. When the tales of the B-1 and B-52 carpet bombing
of the camps make the rounds, fewer are likely to volunteer for
training. It may be that some of the attacks were designed to set
the stage for helping the Northern Alliance forces.
Apparently,
two C-17 airlift aircraft have (or soon will have) delivered 37,500
humanitarian daily rations through a high-altitude delivery system
that does not involve parachutes, but for which military leaders
have some confidence of precision. The humanitarian missions are
designed to signal to the Afghan people that we are not fighting
against them.
In the initial
missions, the U.S. used 50 cruise missiles, 15 long-range bombers,
25 carrier-based fighter bombers, and two C-17s. There have been
no reports thus far about any attacks on caves or similar targets.
So far, there are no U.S. or coalition air losses (except what was
the suspected downing of an unmanned aerial vehicle several days
ago). Taliban reports of shooting down a coalition aircraft are
in the same category as the early Taliban report that no coalition
attacks were successful and that all the missiles fell in the desert.
Over the next
few days we should expect to see:
·
The Taliban Air Force finished off; what is left of the air-defense
system crushed; more command and intelligence centers destroyed.
· Police and secret-police headquarters and facilities
leveled.
· Taliban tanks, artillery, and mechanized vehicles "plinked"
to destruction or into hiding; Taliban troop concentrations decimated
with cluster munitions.
· Petroleum and ammunition storage sites destroyed
· More humanitarian daily rations and medical supplies
dropped to refugees, anti-Taliban areas, and known areas of large-scale
suffering. (It is not hard to imagine civilian feeding and medical
support centers springing up overnight in some locations.)
· Al Qaeda sites bombed or otherwise attacked.
In the longer
run, we should also expect:
·
Introduction of conventional ground forces into Afghanistan.
· Accidental (on our part) killing of Afghan civilians.
· Loss of a coalition aircraft to a shoulder-launched missile(s)
— if not soon, then eventually. (The pilot will be rescued
by Special Operations Forces.)
· Air operations in support of special operations activities
— aimed at unraveling the al Qaeda network and infrastructure.
· Air operations in closer support of Northern Alliance
forces.
· Attacks on suspected bin Laden hiding places.
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