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greatest upset in New Jersey political history took place 225 years
ago — on the morning after Christmas, 1776, to be exact —
when George Washington slipped a few thousand colonial troops across
the Delaware River under cover of darkness and surprised British
and Hessian forces in the Battle of Trenton. With that one surprise
attack, the tide of the war turned, and the rest is history. Now
that U.S. Attorney Mary Jo White has announced that her office has
ended its four-year investigation of U.S. Senator Robert Torricelli
with a decision not to pursue a federal indictment, Republicans
can't be blamed for asking themselves three questions: Can Torricelli
be defeated? If so, by whom? And will it require an upset on the
order of Washington's victory 225 years ago?
At first glance,
the task appears difficult. Torricelli is a somewhat liberal Democrat
senator from a somewhat liberal Democrat-leaning state (since 1972,
only two Republicans have won statewide elections); he has a knack
for raising tremendous sums of money, in a state where campaigns
require tremendous sums of money (the New York City and Philadelphia
media markets are the most expensive and fourth-most-expensive media
markets in the country, respectively); and his ambition seemingly
knows no bounds (he was just two years into his first term in the
Senate when Democratic colleagues tapped him to be chairman of their
campaign committee — largely because of his reputation as a
man who would do whatever it took to win).
Of course,
it was that very reputation that led to the Justice Department investigation
— first into his 1996 campaign's finances, then into his personal
finances. Seven people were convicted of making illegal contributions
to his campaign, three of his top aides were targeted, and Torricelli
himself had to watch in embarrassment as the FBI served a search
warrant on his home. Though the feds ultimately declined to prosecute,
the investigation nevertheless exposed tens of thousands of dollars'
worth of unreported gifts from constituents (including expensive
Italian suits, antiques, and Rolex watches) — as well as "investment
advice" from a supporter who turned the Senator on to an IPO
that earned him a $52,000 one-day gain — and drove Torricelli's
public approval ratings down significantly. (A poll conducted last
summer for the New Jersey Republican Party showed that when asked,
"What issue or action do you most associate with Bob Torricelli?,"
the most popular responses, at six percent each, were "dishonest"
and "shady fund-raising," followed by three percent who
said "scandal" and another three percent who said "illegal
money.")
Moreover, during
his 1996 campaign Torricelli very loudly promised to support a Balanced
Budget Amendment, but then didn't even wait a week after being sworn
in to break that promise. It was Torricelli who rewrote U.S. law
to force the adoption of an amendment preventing U.S. intelligence
agencies from working with certain unsavory characters abroad —
severely gutting U.S. human intelligence-gathering capabilities
and weakening our defenses against terrorism.
Despite Torricelli's
vulnerabilities, several top-tier Republicans have taken a pass
on the race. They include former Governors Tom Kean and Christie
Whitman, 2001 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bret Schundler, 2000 GOP
Senate nominee Bob Franks, and two potential self-financing candidates,
two-time presidential candidate Steve Forbes and former Port Authority
Chairman Lewis Eisenberg.
That's not
to say Torricelli is in the clear, however; in recent years in New
Jersey, several relatively unknown candidates have broken out of
the pack to run surprisingly close races against incumbents. In
the absence of statewide offices other than U.S. senator and governor,
and because there is no New Jersey media market (candidates have
to rely on television stations in New York City and Philadelphia),
it is extraordinarily difficult for candidates to become known statewide
until they actually run for office; once they do, however, the New
Jersey electorate — which is both higher-income and better-educated
than most — tunes in, images are formed, and races tighten.
In 1990, for instance, then-unknown Christie Whitman gave Bill Bradley
a scare; then-unknown Jim McGreevey ran even closer against Whitman
in 1997; and relatively little-known Bob Franks came in a very close
second to Jon Corzine in 2000, despite being outspent by ten to
one. They did so by closing strong, winning overwhelmingly among
those voters who decided within the final week of the campaign.
By most accounts,
Essex County Executive Jim Treffinger — the first Republican
to enter the race — is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.
His claim comes in having run statewide once before (he finished
third in a field of four in the 2000 GOP Senate primary) and in
having demonstrated an ability to win Democrat crossover votes (Essex
County is home to Newark, the state's biggest city, which is long
controlled by the Democrats). He claims to have raised $250,000
at his first fundraiser, and this week released a list of endorsements
that includes four county chairmen — including those of two
of the four biggest counties in the state.
But Treffinger's
candidacy has, so far, failed to light a fire under New Jersey Republicans.
An online poll conducted two weeks ago by PoliticsNJ.com, the leading
political website in the state, had Treffinger — the only announced
GOP candidate at the time — coming in fifth in a field of five,
not even breaking the ten-percent threshold.
Enter State
Assemblyman Guy Gregg. A leader of the so-called "Mountain
Men" (conservative legislators in the state assembly), he was
one of the first elected officials to endorse Schundler in last
year's GOP gubernatorial primary — at a time when the entire
statewide GOP establishment had lined up against Schundler —
and in one bold move, earned the undying loyalty of legions of Schundler
activists around the state. That in itself is an asset not to be
underestimated: As Schundler demonstrated in last year's gubernatorial
primary, the state's GOP establishment is a paper tiger when it
comes to producing votes, and the statewide organization Schundler
built last year is clearly the strongest GOP/conservative network
in New Jersey.
Gregg has moved
aggressively, signing on key members of Schundler's high command,
and has just begun making fundraising calls. Coming out of the second-largest
Republican county in the state, and with the majority of the Schundler
network behind him, Gregg will have one hurdle remaining —
can he raise the $2-3 million necessary to compete with Treffinger?
Two men who
would have no problem anteing up are Douglas Forrester and Ken Pasternak,
self-made multimillionaires who are reportedly considering entering
the race (and, essentially, repeating the Corzine exercise of 2000
— i.e., spending enough of their own personal wealth on advertising
to ensure victory). State Senator Diane Allen, a former Philadelphia
TV anchorwoman who comes from the liberal wing of the party, is
also considering the race, as is State Senator John Matheussen,
but each is handicapped by coming out of the south, where just one-fourth
of the statewide GOP vote resides.
At this point,
Bob Torricelli is a happy camper. His greatest fear — running
for reelection while under indictment — has evaporated, and
his strongest potential challengers have decided they've got better
things to do. The state GOP will have to go through another bruising
primary fight (as it did in last year's governor's race) to choose
a nominee, who will then have to start from scratch, in June, against
an incumbent with a sizable war chest. But there's hope for Republicans:
After all, this is New Jersey, where the late-breaking electorate
makes anything possible — and where there's a history
of upsets going back more than two centuries.
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