Torch Challenge
Can Torricelli be defeated?

he greatest upset in New Jersey political history took place 225 years ago — on the morning after Christmas, 1776, to be exact — when George Washington slipped a few thousand colonial troops across the Delaware River under cover of darkness and surprised British and Hessian forces in the Battle of Trenton. With that one surprise attack, the tide of the war turned, and the rest is history. Now that U.S. Attorney Mary Jo White has announced that her office has ended its four-year investigation of U.S. Senator Robert Torricelli with a decision not to pursue a federal indictment, Republicans can't be blamed for asking themselves three questions: Can Torricelli be defeated? If so, by whom? And will it require an upset on the order of Washington's victory 225 years ago?

At first glance, the task appears difficult. Torricelli is a somewhat liberal Democrat senator from a somewhat liberal Democrat-leaning state (since 1972, only two Republicans have won statewide elections); he has a knack for raising tremendous sums of money, in a state where campaigns require tremendous sums of money (the New York City and Philadelphia media markets are the most expensive and fourth-most-expensive media markets in the country, respectively); and his ambition seemingly knows no bounds (he was just two years into his first term in the Senate when Democratic colleagues tapped him to be chairman of their campaign committee — largely because of his reputation as a man who would do whatever it took to win).

Of course, it was that very reputation that led to the Justice Department investigation — first into his 1996 campaign's finances, then into his personal finances. Seven people were convicted of making illegal contributions to his campaign, three of his top aides were targeted, and Torricelli himself had to watch in embarrassment as the FBI served a search warrant on his home. Though the feds ultimately declined to prosecute, the investigation nevertheless exposed tens of thousands of dollars' worth of unreported gifts from constituents (including expensive Italian suits, antiques, and Rolex watches) — as well as "investment advice" from a supporter who turned the Senator on to an IPO that earned him a $52,000 one-day gain — and drove Torricelli's public approval ratings down significantly. (A poll conducted last summer for the New Jersey Republican Party showed that when asked, "What issue or action do you most associate with Bob Torricelli?," the most popular responses, at six percent each, were "dishonest" and "shady fund-raising," followed by three percent who said "scandal" and another three percent who said "illegal money.")

Moreover, during his 1996 campaign Torricelli very loudly promised to support a Balanced Budget Amendment, but then didn't even wait a week after being sworn in to break that promise. It was Torricelli who rewrote U.S. law to force the adoption of an amendment preventing U.S. intelligence agencies from working with certain unsavory characters abroad — severely gutting U.S. human intelligence-gathering capabilities and weakening our defenses against terrorism.

Despite Torricelli's vulnerabilities, several top-tier Republicans have taken a pass on the race. They include former Governors Tom Kean and Christie Whitman, 2001 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bret Schundler, 2000 GOP Senate nominee Bob Franks, and two potential self-financing candidates, two-time presidential candidate Steve Forbes and former Port Authority Chairman Lewis Eisenberg.

That's not to say Torricelli is in the clear, however; in recent years in New Jersey, several relatively unknown candidates have broken out of the pack to run surprisingly close races against incumbents. In the absence of statewide offices other than U.S. senator and governor, and because there is no New Jersey media market (candidates have to rely on television stations in New York City and Philadelphia), it is extraordinarily difficult for candidates to become known statewide until they actually run for office; once they do, however, the New Jersey electorate — which is both higher-income and better-educated than most — tunes in, images are formed, and races tighten. In 1990, for instance, then-unknown Christie Whitman gave Bill Bradley a scare; then-unknown Jim McGreevey ran even closer against Whitman in 1997; and relatively little-known Bob Franks came in a very close second to Jon Corzine in 2000, despite being outspent by ten to one. They did so by closing strong, winning overwhelmingly among those voters who decided within the final week of the campaign.

By most accounts, Essex County Executive Jim Treffinger — the first Republican to enter the race — is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. His claim comes in having run statewide once before (he finished third in a field of four in the 2000 GOP Senate primary) and in having demonstrated an ability to win Democrat crossover votes (Essex County is home to Newark, the state's biggest city, which is long controlled by the Democrats). He claims to have raised $250,000 at his first fundraiser, and this week released a list of endorsements that includes four county chairmen — including those of two of the four biggest counties in the state.

But Treffinger's candidacy has, so far, failed to light a fire under New Jersey Republicans. An online poll conducted two weeks ago by PoliticsNJ.com, the leading political website in the state, had Treffinger — the only announced GOP candidate at the time — coming in fifth in a field of five, not even breaking the ten-percent threshold.

Enter State Assemblyman Guy Gregg. A leader of the so-called "Mountain Men" (conservative legislators in the state assembly), he was one of the first elected officials to endorse Schundler in last year's GOP gubernatorial primary — at a time when the entire statewide GOP establishment had lined up against Schundler — and in one bold move, earned the undying loyalty of legions of Schundler activists around the state. That in itself is an asset not to be underestimated: As Schundler demonstrated in last year's gubernatorial primary, the state's GOP establishment is a paper tiger when it comes to producing votes, and the statewide organization Schundler built last year is clearly the strongest GOP/conservative network in New Jersey.

Gregg has moved aggressively, signing on key members of Schundler's high command, and has just begun making fundraising calls. Coming out of the second-largest Republican county in the state, and with the majority of the Schundler network behind him, Gregg will have one hurdle remaining — can he raise the $2-3 million necessary to compete with Treffinger?

Two men who would have no problem anteing up are Douglas Forrester and Ken Pasternak, self-made multimillionaires who are reportedly considering entering the race (and, essentially, repeating the Corzine exercise of 2000 — i.e., spending enough of their own personal wealth on advertising to ensure victory). State Senator Diane Allen, a former Philadelphia TV anchorwoman who comes from the liberal wing of the party, is also considering the race, as is State Senator John Matheussen, but each is handicapped by coming out of the south, where just one-fourth of the statewide GOP vote resides.

At this point, Bob Torricelli is a happy camper. His greatest fear — running for reelection while under indictment — has evaporated, and his strongest potential challengers have decided they've got better things to do. The state GOP will have to go through another bruising primary fight (as it did in last year's governor's race) to choose a nominee, who will then have to start from scratch, in June, against an incumbent with a sizable war chest. But there's hope for Republicans: After all, this is New Jersey, where the late-breaking electorate makes anything possible — and where there's a history of upsets going back more than two centuries.