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 oday
we observe the 186th anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo, a date
with political significance. A few weeks ago, many news stories
marked President Bush's first hundred days in office, but few noted
that the original "hundred days" referred to the time between Napoleon's
return from Elba and the restoration of Louis XVIII after Waterloo.
Recalling that link may seem inauspicious, but it's a great way
to lower expectations. President Bush hasn't gone into exile after
losing his army on a Belgian battlefield, so by the "Bonaparte Test,"
he's a success.
More seriously, the anniversary should remind us of the similarities
between politics and warfare. After the Jeffords switch, Senate
Republican Leader Trent Lott said "we must begin to wage the war
today for the election in 2002." Even more bellicose was Gov. Gray
Davis of California. Attacking Bush energy policies last month,
he said, "We are literally at war with energy companies that are
price gouging us. Many of those companies are in Texas." If Davis
literally meant "literally," he would slung an ammo belt over his
shoulder, hoisted the Bear Flag, and led the California National
Guard on an march to downtown Dallas. "Metaphorically" was the word
he really wanted.
Still, warfare is a sound metaphor, and a bit of coincidental timing
reinforces the point. On Thursday, its 226th birthday, the Army
issued new editions of two basic field manuals, titled simply "The
Army" and "Operations."
Both contain advice that the Bush White House could easily adapt
to its own battlefields.
"The Army" speaks of leadership: "Self-aware leaders understand
their operational environment, can assess their own capabilities,
determine their own strengths and weaknesses, and actively learn
to overcome their weaknesses. Adaptive leaders must first be self-aware
— then have the additional ability to recognize change in their
operating environment, identify those changes, and learn how to
adapt to succeed in their new environment."
Passage of the tax bill indicates that the Administration is strong
at setting legislative priorities. Its greatest weakness is the
popular belief that it favors special interests. The operating environment
has changed now that Senate Democrats can fuel that belief with
hearings on official missteps and scandals. Officials must take
more care than ever in avoiding conflicts of interest and forgoing
Clintonesque fundraising techniques.
Though they may also have to trim their legislative goals, they
should shun policy reversals. Adoption of liberal agenda items might
win praise from Democratic leaders and editorial boards, but as
Napoleon himself put it, "Praise from enemies is suspicious." More
to the point, he said that retreat hurts morale and eventually costs
more than tenacity, because "in a battle the enemy loses nearly
as much as you, while in a retreat the loss is all on your side."
In "Operations," the Army emphasizes the need to maintain the offensive,
to force the other side to respond to your initiatives. Nevertheless,
every military or political organization must also wage defensive
actions. The need for a good defense will become brutally clear
with the next Supreme Court nomination. As Sen. Charles Schumer
of New York said, the Democratic fight against John Ashcroft was
"a shot across the bow" — a warning of a much nastier fight
against any conservative nominee for the Court.
In preparing for that fight, the Bush people should ponder what
"Operations" says: "In the defense, initiative implies quickly turning
the tables on the attacker. It means taking aggressive action to
collect information and force the attacker to reveal his intentions.
Defenders aim to negate the attacker's initial advantages, gain
freedom of action, and force the enemy to fight on the defender's
terms." That's what Clarence Thomas did ten years ago.
Even without a Court battle in the offing, the White House is taking
more and more incoming fire. The Jeffords switch is only the most
prominent in a series of glitches that have led some commentators
to suggest that the Bush camp is losing its grip. On this point,
a passage from "Operations" needs no additional commentary:
"Things can and will go wrong. The ability of leaders and soldiers
to concentrate erodes as they reach the limits of their endurance.
If the enemy is skilled and resolute, soldiers may approach that
point when `can't be done' and `can't go any further' dominate their
thinking. At that point, the will and personal presence of commanders
provide the impetus for action."
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